VISTAS Meteorological Modeling 2002 Simulation May 25, 2004 National RPO Modeling Meeting Denver, CO George Bridgers North Carolina Division of Air Quality.

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Presentation transcript:

VISTAS Meteorological Modeling 2002 Simulation May 25, 2004 National RPO Modeling Meeting Denver, CO George Bridgers North Carolina Division of Air Quality

Introduction MM5 v (Sea Ice Differences Only)MM5 v (Sea Ice Differences Only) MM5 v3.6.2 PreprocessorsMM5 v3.6.2 Preprocessors Reisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice PhysicsReisner 1 w/ Mixed Ice Physics Kain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus ParameterizationKain-Fritsch 2 Cumulus Parameterization ACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) ModelACM Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) Model Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP version)Pleim-Xiu Land Surface Model LSM (EPA’s MPP version) –independent segments (cold start)-no INTERPPX INTERPPX is used to initialize soil moisture, canopy moisture, and soil temperature from a previous run when simulation time periods overlap. –Using INTERPPX resulted in a significant wintertime cold bias in sensitivity testing.

Introduction (cont.) MM5 executed in 5.5 day segmentsMM5 executed in 5.5 day segments 76 total segments76 total segments 00Z Dec 17, 2001 start00Z Dec 17, 2001 start dec17_01 date tagdec17_01 date tag 12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish12Z Jan 1, 2003 finish Last hour of dec27_02 segmentLast hour of dec27_02 segment

Evaluation Procedures Full suite of evaluation products available for each segmentFull suite of evaluation products available for each segment Surface ProductsSurface Products  Spatial  Time series  Combination Aloft ProductsAloft Products  Spatial  Sounding  Profiler Statistical ProductsStatistical Products  Surface time series  Aloft time series  Tables

Evaluation Procedures Need to Summarize ResultsNeed to Summarize Results Monthly ProductsMonthly Products Statistical TablesStatistical Tables Spatial Summary PlotsSpatial Summary Plots “Bakergrams” (annual)“Bakergrams” (annual) “Bakergrams” (monthly)“Bakergrams” (monthly) Spatial Statistical PlotsSpatial Statistical Plots

Statistical Charts

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/Night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 36km

Day/night VISTAS Statistics, 12km

Monthly VISTAS Statistics

Seasonal VISTAS Statistics

Annual Bakergrams

Monthly Bakergrams

Spatial Plots

Performance Summary Modeling Results Are as ExpectedModeling Results Are as Expected Cold Bias in WinterCold Bias in Winter Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project)Soil initialization procedure needs improvement (beyond scope of project) 10-day soil time scale too long?10-day soil time scale too long? Precip amounts in summer overdone in SE USPrecip amounts in summer overdone in SE US Best performance in VISTAS region for most variables…Best performance in VISTAS region for most variables… Performance is quite good compared with other modeling exercisesPerformance is quite good compared with other modeling exercises Characteristics of the 36km and 12km domains are generally similar, but interesting differencesCharacteristics of the 36km and 12km domains are generally similar, but interesting differences

What’s Next For VISTAS’ Meteorological Team Survey VISTAS states regarding:Survey VISTAS states regarding: Performance zones evaluationPerformance zones evaluation What are other RPO’s doing?What are other RPO’s doing? Awaiting results of CART analysisAwaiting results of CART analysis State by State (VISTAS) evaluationState by State (VISTAS) evaluation To support PM2.5 SIP workTo support PM2.5 SIP work Formatting files for CALMET/CALPUFFFormatting files for CALMET/CALPUFF To support state permit modelingTo support state permit modeling Transfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storageTransfers available… Want it? Need 1.2 TB storage 2003 episodic modeling ?2003 episodic modeling ? Episodes could be identified by CART analysisEpisodes could be identified by CART analysis

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