A Systems Framework of Big Data for Analysis of Policy and Strategy Peter Coombes & Michael Barry

Introduction  Systems Framework methodologies developed over the last two decades  “Bottom up” systems analysis to inform “whole of Society” strategy and policy development including trade-offs  Included in over 120 peer reviewed publications and government reports  Extensively peer reviewed (including a 3 month open book process during Living Victoria policy)  This is the first publication focused solely to the Systems Framework

Overview Influenced by the thinking of: Lovelock: Elements of biosphere are interconnected and dynamic Carson: Natural systems altered by human behaviour Forester: Earth’s dynamic systems include human behaviours Meadows: Cumulative ecosystem and economic responses to exponential human growth IPCC: Earth systems and human welfare impacted by climate  Nash: Game Theory Multiple linked scales of behaviour

Overview

Big Data Climate, topography, population, waterways Land uses, infrastructure, planning schemes, demography Multiple linked layers of spatial and temporal information

Local Scale Simulates local behaviours of people, land uses, buildings and ecology at 6 minute time steps. Informed by big data layers. Water, wastewater, stormwater, energy, economics, health.

Local Scale Uses behavioural water use drivers, base water year (not average demands) – calibrated to local observations. Feedback loops with regional scale (water restrictions and prices) Local calibration to base water years

Transition (zone) scale  Combine water use, wastewater flows, stormwater runoff, financial transactions and energy use from local scales  Using town planning projections, climate sequences and population  Monte Carlo simulations  Outputs of Daily Sequences of Water Demands, Wastewater Flows, Stormwater Runoff, Energy Demands and Finances

Transition (zone) scale Zones or sub-catchments based on town planning, hydrology, topography, climate, waterways and infrastructure

Network or Catchment Scale Zone scale results input to nodes at regional scale. Combines water, wastewater, stormwater and energy infrastructure networks with waterways and catchments. Daily operational simulations of multiple replicates

Regional Scale Includes regional processes of policy (water restrictions), economic drivers (prices, incentives), climate change and environmental regulations (environmental flows, WQ). Hindcasting of model results across periods of known performance provides certainty

Regional Scale Hindcasting across all linked scales and disciplines (not separate) allows confidence in determination of design, strategy and policy trade-offs Unique hindcasting of linked financial and economic processes. Includes optimisation with game theory methods to maximise economic welfare

Network or Catchment Scale Multiples replicates of system behaviours allows understanding of frequency, percentiles and probability of behaviours. For example Water Demands and Wastewater flows for three options: Conventional PER: rainwater and stormwater harvesting Flow Systems: Third pipe wastewater reuse

Regional Scale Includes cumulative financial transactions across all scales – accounts for costs of providing services, and revenue generated by services. New Keynesian economics: macroeconomics underpinned by microeconomic detail. Example; spatial NPV for Greater Sydney

Regional Scale Accounts for linked cumulative processes of providing services or environmental impacts. Example: Spatial patterns of greenhouse gas emissions for Melbourne

Insights  Systems Framework links actions across scales for householders, firms, commonwealth, state and local governments, and bulk and retail authorities  Combines the water cycle with environment, economic, energy, climate and infrastructure processes from the “bottom up” to frame policy.  Advances in computing power permit this quantum process to be driven by continuous simulation  A transition from separate reductionist methods to expansive analysis of systems  Provides understanding of cumulative impacts and trade-offs  Developing open source and web-enabled capability