The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Climate Scenarios in Vulnerability, Impact and Adaptation Assessments: MAGICC/SCENGEN overview AIACC Scenarios Training Course Norwich, April 2002 Dr Mike Hulme

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI MAGICC/SCENGEN 2.4, IPCC SAR Version Observed data – four regions – 0.5deg resolution IS92 emissions, plus preliminary SRES emissions 14 GCM patterns, with/without aerosols IPCC Second Assessment version of MAGICC Changes in average monthly/seasonal climate

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI MAGICC/SCENGEN 3.0, IPCC TAR Version Observed data – all land areas – 10’ resolution Final (35) SRES emissions scenarios SRES-forced GCM patterns, with aerosols IPCC Third Assessment version of MAGICC (Sarah Raper) Changes in interannual variance as well as means Diagnostic tools (scatter plots) to explore uncertainty for user regions What’s the difference? $100,000 which we are seeking!

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Purpose of MAGICC/SCENGEN SCENGEN Exploratory tool regarding regional climate response patterns Allows a wide range of uncertainties to be quantified Enables generation of 1 st order regional climate scenarios Combines GCM changes with observed climate fields MAGICC Consistent scenarios of global CO2, T and SL Linked to IPCC emissions and IPCC science

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Pattern-scaling Step 1: Define master pattern from GCM in such a way as to maximise signal/noise ratio … e.g mean temperature minus mean temperature (from an ensemble of n simulations) e.g. fit a linear regression through time series data Key assumption: anthropogenic climate change signal can be adequately defined from climate models

The Tyndall Centre comprises nine UK research institutions. It is funded by three Research Councils - NERC, EPSRC and ESRC – and receives additional support from the DTI Pattern-scaling Step 2: Normalise the master pattern to 1C global warming Key assumption: the anthropogenic climate change patterns are a function of global temperature Key assumption: the anthropogenic climate change patterns are independent of the history of greenhouse gas forcing Step 3: Re-scale the normalised master pattern by the global warming of the relevant emissions scenario and time-slice required (obtained from MAGICC)