Eli Jacks, Acting Chief, Forecast Services Division Analyze, Forecast and Support Office Some Non-Haz Simp Items (The NWS Reorg and Consistency) Binghamton.

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Presentation transcript:

Eli Jacks, Acting Chief, Forecast Services Division Analyze, Forecast and Support Office Some Non-Haz Simp Items (The NWS Reorg and Consistency) Binghamton Sub-Regional Workshop September 24, 2015

New Organizational Structure

HQ Leadership John Murphy, Chief Operating Officer Ming Ji, Director, Office of Science & Tech Integration Luis Cano, Director, Office of Dissemination Joe Pica, Acting Director, Office of Observations David Michaud, Director, Office of Central Processing Andy Stern, Director, AFS Office John Ogren, Acting Director, Office of Chief Learning Officer Deirdre Jones, Director, Office of Facilities Benjie Spencer, Chief Engineer

AFS Office Organization Analyze, Forecast, and Support Office Andrew Stern Analysis and Mission Support Division Mark Tew (Acting) Forecast Services Division Eli Jacks (Acting) Analysis and Nowcast Branch (Vacant) Decision Support Integration Branch (Vacant) Digital and Graphical Information Support Branch (Vacant) Severe, Fire, Public, and Winter Services Branch Heath Hockenberry (Acting) Climate Services Branch Fiona Horsfall Water Resources Services Branch Mary Mullusky Aviation and Space Weather Services Branch Kevin Stone (Acting) Marine, Tropical, and Tsunami Services Branch Mike Dion (Acting) AFS Portfolio Office: Executive Officer: Michelle Hawkins (Acting) Portfolio Management: Dawn McClure (Acting)

New : Analysis & Nowcast Branch Emphasis is on 0- 6 hour time period

AFS in the Governance Structure AFS works with all Leadership within the COO Tree via the Mission Delivery Council (MDC) AFS works with all OPPSD Portfolio Leadership via the Portfolio Integration Council (PIC) AFS Portfolio

New Corporate Councils 7

Spotlight on Consistency

Types of Consistency Areal Temporal Process Policy Messaging Formatting Internal versus External

Example: Areal Grid Consistency Snow Forecast along 3 CWA Boarders

Example: Areal WWA Consistency “Walls” & “Donut Holes” in the West

Example: Temporal Consistency Product Shelf Life (location of ZR) Generated Complaint from FEMA HQ Pre-Decisional

Example: Process Consistency Differences between WFO and National Center Products SPC Fire Wx Forecast Apr 24, 2014 WFO Red Flag Warnings 12Z Apr 24, 2014

Example: Messaging Consistency A “crazy quilt” of graphicasts and weather stories

Questions for Discussion What is your feeling – consistency versus accuracy? What opportunities are there to improve forecast & warning consistency? How about messaging consistency? What can NWSH do to support you from a policy standpoint to promote consistency? What additional tools do you need to promote consistency?

Possible solutions - Establish common deadline for collaboration and publishing (per WR model). - Create software that disables publishing if collaboration does not meet tolerance per Create automated national maps with smoothing capabilities for high level use - Encourage national centers to use grids as initial input to their maps. - Common smarttools and data sets across WFOs to better initialize grids. Tighten all grid tolerances to minimize cumulative errors that build over time especially for derived grids - Define ROC roles in addressing existing inconsistencies ROC staff need to have mediator skills. 16