PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS LECTURE 8 Deficits, Surpluses, & the Public Debt
In this chapter you will learn What a budget deficit and a budget surplus are, and their connection to the public debt The misconceptions about budget deficits and the national debt The substantive issues about budget deficits and the public debt The effect of the recent budgetary surplus
Topics Deficits & Debt: Definitions Budget Philosophies The Public Debt: Facts & Figures False Concerns Substantive Issues Deficits & Surpluses: 1990 to the Present Options for the Surpluses
Deficit & Debt: Definitions Budget Deficit Annual amount by which government expenditures exceed taxes E.g. 1996/97 deficit = $13.5 billion Public Debt Accumulation of all past deficits E.g public debt =$650 billion
Budget Philosophies Annually Balanced Budget G = T every year Intensifies the cycle (pro-cyclical) Politically responsible?
Budget Philosophies Cyclically Balanced Budget G = T over each business cycle Deficits in recessionary downswings Surpluses in inflationary upswings Counter-cyclical (stabilizes the cycle) Not workable in practice n Annually Balanced Budget
Budget Philosophies Cyclically Balanced Budget n Annually Balanced Budget n Functional Finance –Balancing the budget is of secondary importance –Primary focus is on stabilizing economy (counter- cyclical policies) –May result in a large public debt
The Public Debt : Facts & Figures
Causes Wars Recessions Lack Of Political Will
The Public Debt : Facts & Figures Quantitative Aspects Debt & GDP relative size of the debt now decreasing International Comparisons our debt has grown rapidly
The Public Debt : Facts & Figures Quantitative Aspects Debt & GDP International Comparisons n Interest Charges –recently have begun to decline
The Public Debt : Facts & Figures Quantitative Aspects Debt & GDP International Comparisons n Interest Charges n Ownership –foreign-owned debt an issue
The Public Debt : Facts & Figures Quantitative Aspects Debt & GDP International Comparisons n Interest Charges n Ownership n Accounting & Inflation
Substantive Issues Income Distribution Incentives External Debt Crowding Out & the Stock of Capital
IgIg Investment (billions of dollars) Real interest rate (percent) Increasing the debt may put upward pressure on interest rates. The higher interest rates may reduce private Investment (I g ) The Crowding Out Effect Figure
The Crowding Out Effect Qualifications Public Investment Public-Private Complementarities
IgIg Real interest rate (percent) The Crowding Out Effect The crowding out effect may be partially offset by increased private investment, due to improvements in infrastructure Investment (billions of dollars) Figure
Deficits & Surpluses: deficits were enormous during the early 1990s budget surpluses appeared in late 1990s surpluses expected to grow through the 2000s
19 Source: Department of Finance Annual budget deficits throughout most of the 1980s & the first half of the 1990s gave way to surpluses in the late 1990s
Options for the Surpluses Paying Down the Public Debt Reduce Taxes Increase Public Expenditures Combinations of Policies
Topics 3 Deficits & Debt: Definitions 3 Budget Philosophies 3 The Public Debt: Facts & Figures 3 False Concerns 3 Substantive Issues 3 Deficits & Surpluses: 1990 to the Present 3 Options for the Surpluses