The Precautionary Principle and Cost-Benefit analysis Risk Assessment The Precautionary Principle and Cost-Benefit analysis

The Precautionary Principle “Better safe than sorry” “Always err on the safe side” More formally (and more controversially): “The lack of complete certainty is not a justification to do nothing.” If there is a reasonable suspicion of harm, AND … there is scientific uncertainty about cause and effect THEN … We have a duty to take action to prevent the potential harm. Burden of proof is on those who claim there is no risk. (from the Science and Environmental Health Network)

Applied to Global Warming “The lack of complete certainty is not a justification to do nothing.” Is there is a reasonable suspicion of harm? Is there scientific uncertainty about cause and effect ? Do we have a duty to take action to prevent the harm? Are there downsides to consider if we “overreact” to a non-crisis? We’ll get back to this VERY complex example later.

Simpler Examples of P.P. Tobacco and Lung Cancer Second-hand smoke X-rays and Cancer Cell phones and Cancer Lead in paint, lead additive in gasoline Asbestos removal laws Sweetener bans Food recalls (spinach, tomato, beef this year) Speed limits Carbon monoxide detector laws Helmet laws (minors, bicycles, cars … )

The Costs of Precaution Economic effects (Ex: of asbestos abatement) increased cost to producers job losses as employers layoff to cut costs increased prices to consumers businesses MUST profit to stay in business Quality of life issues (Ex: CAFE standards) We could ban lead and mercury, but at what loss? Better use for the resources ($) (Ex: CO detectors) How many lives do carbon monoxide detectors save? Could those millions be better spent in cancer research, …? My wife is far more likely to die of breast cancer than CO poisoning Unintended consequences (Ex: DDT and malaria) Must weigh Costs against the Benefits

Acceptable Levels of Risk Is a zero-risk life possible? don’t bungee-jump don’t smoke don’t drink alcohol don’t eat unhealthy foods don’t drive don’t have sex If not, how do we determine the acceptable risk level?

Cost–Benefit Analysis Applying the financial analysis technique to policy making and personal decision-making A more complicated alternative to the Precautionary Principle Example: Cost-Benefit analysis of eliminating cell phones, which may produce dangerous radiation.

Reacting to Global Warming What is the main cause of anthropogenic GW? What must be done to reduce our contribution to GW, assuming there is one? What are the costs of doing the above?