BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST JAMES WOOD BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY.

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Presentation transcript:

BANK OF UTAH OFFICER’S MEETING UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST JAMES WOOD BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS UNIVERSITY OF UTAH February 7, 2006

CHANGE IN UTAH’S ECONOMIC INDICATORS Category Nonag. Employment (% chg.)2.8%3.5%3.3% Unemp. Rate5.2%4.7%4.5% Total Wages (% chg.)6.4%7.8%6.8% Population (% chg.)1.6%3.2%2.9% Average Annual Pay (% chg.)3.5%3.8%3.4% Net Migration (000) New Auto/Truck Sales (000) Residential Units (000) Residential Valuation (million)$3,552.6$4,600.0$4,620.0 NonRes. Valuation (million)$1,089.9$1,200.0$1,400.0 Taxable Retail Sales (billion)$20.4$22.0$23.5

END-OF-YEAR MOMENTUM  November and December employment two highest months of the year – 41,000 and 44,000.  Net in-migration all time record of 41,000. Previous high 30,000 in Population increase record 78,000.  Third quarter taxable sales rose 13.8%, fastest in 12 yrs.  Biggest fourth qtr. ever in homebuilding – 7,000 units.  Passenger traffic at airport up 23% in third qtr. – 6 mil.  Third qtr. vehicle sales up 21% to 29,800. Highest qtr. ever.  Hotel occupancy rises to 73.1%  Expectations: homebuilders, estimators, ABC, sheet metal contractors, mechanical contractors, concrete ass’n.

UTAH AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY AS PERCENT OF U.S. AVERAGE (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

TOP SECTORS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Average Wage - $30,612) (Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services) SectorNew Jobs in 2005 Total JobsAvg. Wage 2003 Construction10,00085,100$30,528 Prof & Bus.8,600150,700$34,668 Health5,000132,600$28,224 Retail3,000144,500$22,440 Leisure2,600106,200$12,576

NET MIGRATION AND NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN UTAH

Utah = 9.0% U.S. = 12.5%

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS IN UTAH (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah) Cycle 1 Cycle 2 Cycle 3 Cycle 4

Change in Sales Price of Existing Homes in Utah, Metro. Area and Salt Lake County Data Source Average Annual Growth Rate for Period Office of Federal Housing Oversight (Statewide Index) %7.3%3.9%4.3% National Assoc. of Realtors (Salt Lake MSA) $65,800$69,400$141,500$181,4000.9%7.4%3.7%5.1% Wasatch Front Reg. MLS (Salt Lake County) $67,949$83,951$176,479$224,4702.1%7.7%4.9%

Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (Source: National Association of Realtors)