GEOSS Benefit Assessment M. GEOBENE team(2006-9) PEOIC - Assessing the Impact of Satellite EO on Society and Policy 9 th November 2015

IIASA and GEOSS Benefit assessment All SBAs All parts of the policy cycle Many methodologies => PWC, Booz… Portfolios of Observing Systems VOI book M. Macauley….. => Happy to inform PEOIC GEOSS Projects: GEO-BENE, ENERGEO, EUROGEOSS, GEOCARBON, CROWDLAND, SATIDA, SIGMA/GEOGLAM…

Determinant of GEOSS Value 1.Decision making context 2.Risk appetite 3.Nature of risk

Example: GEOSS at COP 21 ? REDD Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation

Land cover uncertainty

Decision context: Value of Information New technology in industry = $30/tonC REDD = $10/tonC if more land available REDD = $40/tonC if less land available 50% $30/ton vs. [0.5*$10+0.5*$40]=$25/ton

Decision Context: Value of Information New technology in industry = $30/tonC REDD = $10/tonC if more land available REDD = $40/tonC if less land available 20% 80% $30/tonC vs. [0.3*$10+0.7*$40]=$34/tonC

Global Integrated Assessment Modelling Calculate VoI of improved Land Observing System: –Uncertainty of land availability –Risk averseness

Land cover uncertainty

10

Land cover uncertainty and REDD Mill. Tons CO 2 /a

Value of Information from better land cover Mill. $ 10% > 2 bill. $

Risk averseness and REDD Increasingly risk-averse Mill. t CO 2 /a

Value of Information and risk averseness Mill. $ Increasingly Risk-averse

Conclusions The VOI of Global Land Observing System is a fraction of the overall mitigation costs, but is very high in absolute terms –E.g. 2 billion $/a for a 10% decrease of uncertainty VOI policy context specific VOI depends on degree of uncertainty VOI depends on risk preference

GEOSS VOI and type of decision error Case of climate adaptation of global food system Leclere et al., 2015

Adaptation in Agriculture Change Crop Management (e.g. irrigation) Change Crop Type Change Location of Farm Change Commodity Trade …..

The GEOSS impact framework Leclère et al., 2015 Representative concentration pathways RCPs Representative concentration pathways RCPs ∆ RF Perturbation General circulation models CMIP5 General circulation models CMIP5 Climate Global gridded crop models GGCMs Global gridded crop models GGCMs Biophysical ∆ T ∆ Pr … ∆ T ∆ Pr … Crop IIASA tools Global land database + ∆ Yield ∆ Inputs Global gridded crop models GGCMs Global gridded crop models GGCMs Economics ∆ Supply ∆ Trade ∆ Food ∆Prices … Socio-economic scenario + Value of Information

Adaptation and Maladaptation No CCCC1CC2 Adaptations strategies

Adaptation and Maladaptation No CCCC1CC2 CC1xxx CC2xxx Adaptations strategies What really happens

Adaptation and Maladaptation No CCCC1CC2 CC1No-adaptAdaptMaladapt CC2No-adaptMaladaptAdapt Adaptations strategies What really happens

VOI of a “perfect” climate prediction system –NO-ADAPT:up to -246 bil. US$/year –ADAPT:up to -43 bil. US$/year ~ / 5

VOI under different adaptation decision errors –NO-ADAPT:up to -246 bil. US$/year –ADAPT:up to -43 bil. US$/year –MALADAPT:up to -470 bil. US$/year ~ / 5 ~ x 10 ~ x 2

Value of GEOSS is highest when it avoids bad decision …… ……..because the universe of bad decisions is larger than the universe of good decisions!

GEOSS valuation can be done, but needs precise methodology, data and modelling!!!