F l y - F i g h t - W i n HQ United States Air Forces Director AF Weather 3 Mar 08 USAF Tropical Cyclone Support

Fly - Fight - Win Tropical Cyclone Support … 10 Years Ago Current Forecast Accuracy & Improvements Operational Vision Air Force Support Research Community … Need your continued support Overview Air Force Weather

F l y - F i g h t - W i n  Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO  Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy  Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler  My challenge to you is: work the 10-year plan to improve forecast and warning accuracy by a factor of 3 or more USAF Tropical Cyclone Support 10 Years Ago

F l y - F i g h t - W i n USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Forecast Accuracy We can work this. Impressive! Improvement factor 2.0 – 2.5!

F l y - F i g h t - W i n  Typhoon warning capability critical to warfighters in Pacific/IO  Must continue to work JOINTLY to improve forecast and warning accuracy  Will take research and operational focus using technology as the enabler  Need research support to improve intensity accuracy by factor of 2 USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Operations Vision

F l y - F i g h t - W i n USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths for Research AF Weather has near-realtime access to interrogatable imagery Could be formatted and disseminated for research projects Hurricane Hunters – WC130J AFRC environmental recon mission corrects/validates satellite interrogation techniques Leverage UAS capabilities

F l y - F i g h t - W i n USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Strengths for Research Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) operationalizes research through its techniques development section JTWC data available in digital formats Easily leveraged for research Continues to send officers through Naval post graduate programs to earn tropical-related masters degrees

F l y - F i g h t - W i n USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC Objectives THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperimen t Environmental characterization, insight, prediction Scale and regional interaction – downstream effects Tropical cyclone position, intensity, and structure change Atmosphere/ocean and storm/environment interaction Multiple, near-coincident, synoptic scale observations METSAT intensity estimate validation/verification Robust sample size enhances statistical significance – key to establishing confidence in existing/developmental techniques Lack of recon data limits METSAT-based intensity exploitation

F l y - F i g h t - W i n T-PARC/TCS-08 a strategic opportunity for PACAF Bolsters unique AF support to multi-lateral/international effort Vital AF contribution to mission (USPACOM Inst ) AFSO 21 initiative -- enables transformational branches/sequels Leverages past AF investment in METSAT intensity estimates Targeted PACAF investment  disproportionate strategic effect(s) 17 OWS personnel are involved with key planners ONR, NRL, NPS and NCAR Progress on non-monetary efforts, more progress expected USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC / PACAF Participation

F l y - F i g h t - W i n HAF providing mandays for AF Reserve aircrews Pairing satellite and aircraft reconnaissance to draw statistically-significant conclusions on the accuracy of several automated meteorological satellite tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithms This research will validate/refute basin-unique synoptic-scale environmental influences/differences One step closer to validating automated satellite techniques in NWPAC USAF Tropical Cyclone Support T-PARC & Hurricane Hunters

F l y - F i g h t - W i n Need research community support Top priority is intensity/structure…need improved: Specification of cyclone structure (wind strength and distribution) Satellite based intensity estimates Forecast techniques for cyclone intensity/structure changes over time USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Community Help Climate change influence on cyclone tracks / intensities Impacts on strategic / failing states (e.g., Africa, Indian Ocean)

F l y - F i g h t - W i n Questions? USAF Tropical Cyclone Support Community Help

F l y - F i g h t - W i n Quantify the amount of forecast error attributed to initial position error in the major models Determine intensity using passive microwave radiance data Determine if rapid fluctuations in typhoon intensity could have been influenced by ocean heat content and TC heat potential Identify sources of large forecast track errors Develop rules of thumb to improve rapid intensification forecasting 24 to 48 hours before it occurs Identify factors that may enhance or inhibit tropical cyclone development in the western North Pacific Develop a monsoon depression climatology Develop a midget tropical cyclone climatology USAF Tropical Cyclone Support AFIT Thesis Topics