Scotland’s Futures Forum Public Policy Seminar Series The Future for Lifelong Learning: Implications for Scotland Professor Tom Schuller

IFLL: emerging conclusions, and implications for Scotland Tom Schuller Director, IFLL Scotland’s Futures Forum Edinburgh, June 2009

IFLL Goals The overall goal is to offer an authoritative and coherent strategic framework for lifelong learning in the UK. This will involve: Articulating a broad rationale for public and private investment in lifelong learning Reappraising the social and cultural value attached to it Developing new perspectives on policy and practice.

IFLL Final Report IFLL Strategic Framework for Lifelong Learning Interim Papers Thematic Stocktake Sectoral Public Value  Prosperity Employment & Work  Demography and Social Structure  Wellbeing and Happiness  Migration and Communities  Technological Change  Poverty Reduction  Citizenship and Belonging  Crime and Social Exclusion  Sustainable Development  Public Sector Investment  Private Sector Investment  Third Sector Investment  Individual Commitment  Participation, over 10 years  Early childhood  Schools  Further Education  Higher Education  Local Authorities  Voluntary Sector  Family learning  Private Training Providers  Poverty  Health  Crime  Wellbeing  Equality Horizon Scanning / Scenario Planning Outline of Inquiry Papers

Key emerging lines 1.Rebalancing: a new model 2.A framework of entitlements 3.A citizens curriculum 4.Systemic governance 5.Local Learning Exchanges

Current or recent participation in learning by nation of the UK, compared 1996 % 1999 % 2002 % 2005 % 2008 % 2009 % Total sample England Wales Scotland Northern Ireland Weighted base4,7555, ,0534,9324,917 Base: all respondents

Productivity and employment in UK UK Employment: Employment populations ratio 2007, UK = 74.4% Productivity: GDP per hour worked (UK = 100), 2009 High employment/ high productivity High employment/ low productivity Low employment/ low productivity Low employment/ high productivity Source: UKCES, Ambition 2020: World Class Skills and Jobs for the UK, 2009, pp 21-22

Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2009, by socio-economic class (NIACE 2009) ABC1C2DE Scotland50.6%40.8%32.6%20.9% UK52.8%48.2%33.3%24.4%

‘Lifelong’ learning: the need for a new model - Demographics - Economic - Social

Youth transitions: linear (Furlong et al)

Youth transitions: non-linear (Furlong et al)

UK demographics are changing … = Working age

The Educational Lifecourse: a new and simple model ‘Four Quarters’: 0-25; 25-50; 50-75; 75+ The paradox of chronological age ‘Staging posts’: the need for markers in a fluid world Neuroscience, sociological, epidemiological No hard boundaries, but reduced arbitrariness l

Balanced by: -Solidarity and cohesion across and within generations -- Diachronic approach: the cumulation of (dis)advantage

Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2009, by age (NIACE 2009) Scotland68.5%37.1%23.1%12.2% UK67.2%43.8%29.6%12.7%

Current or recent participation in learning, Scotland and UK, 2005, by age (NALS) Scotland97.7%*87.1%58.2%28.4% England and Wales 86.5%83.4%66.8%33.6%*

Stocktake: Expenditure Based on IFLL Expenditure Research (work in progress – NOT FOR CITATION!) 17 – 2425 – 4950 – Population – millions Total of LL expenditure on provision - £ millions £46,8125,5791, £ per capita per annum £6,484£262£79£55

‘Citizens curriculum’: four capabilities 1. Financial 2. Health 3. Digital 4. Civic

Access to training at work in last 13 weeks by sector

Questions - Skills utilisation: what does it mean and how to promote it? - Entitlements: where and when would these have the biggest effect? - LL workforce: how to define and support?

“If you have an environment designed to accommodate the skills you have, it brings you back to life and supports health.” John Zeisel, National Institute on Aging and President of Hearthstone

Contacts/links org.uk

Productivity and employment in the UK ( source UKCES Ambition 2020) GVA per hour worked (UK = 100)% Employment rate (Jan 2007)% GVA per hour worked (UK = 100)% Employment rate (Jan 2007)% London North East South East West Midlands England North West East of England Yorkshire and Humber South West Wales East Midlands Northern Ireland Scotland

Expected changes in employment and productivity Employment growth GVA change % Source: UKCES, Working Futures , January %0%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0% UK Wales Scotland Northern Ireland England North East North West Yorkshire and Humber East Midlands West Midlands South West East of England South East London

UK People of Working Age Receiving Job-related Training in Last 13 Weeks by Sex & Highest Qualification Source: Education & Training Statistics 2008

Distribution of qualifications, 2008 (source UKCES Ambition 2020) None % Below Level 2 % Leve l 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 and above % None % Below Level 2 % Level 2 % Level 3 % Level 4 and above % Age Employment status Full-time Part-time Contract status Permanent Gender Non-permanent Male Occupation Female Managers and senior officials Professional occupations Administrative and secretarial Skilled trades occupations Personal service occupations Sales and customer service occupations Process plant and machine operatives Elementary occupations

International skills projections 2020, year old population Below upper secondaryUpper SecondaryTertiary Country% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified RankCountry% QualifiedRank Czech Republic5.01Czech Republic77.21Canada60.21 Sweden5.01Slovak Republic75.42Japan59.92 Hungary5.01Hungary72.33Scotland53.8n/a Slovak Republic5.01Austria63.34Korea51.83 Korea5.01New Zealand61.95Denmark51.64 Norway5.01Sweden58.86USA48.05 Canada5.01Germany57.87Iceland46.76 Netherlands5.01Ireland55.08Norway45.87 Finland5.01Finland52.39Australia45.78 Austria6.110Netherlands51.610Northern Ireland 44.9n/a Japan6.311Italy49.711Spain44.29 Ireland7.712Norway49.212United Kingdom New Zealand8.313Luxembourg48.313Netherlands USA9.914France46.614England42.8n/a Switzerland13.715Greece44.915Finland Denmark13.916Switzerland44.416Belgium Belgium14.317Belgium43.517Switzerland41.914

International skills projections 2020, year old population Below upper secondaryUpper SecondaryTertiary Country% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified RankCountry% Qualified Rank Germany14.418Korea43.218Ireland Australia14.619USA42.219Wales37.3n/a Luxembourg15.820Wales41.6n/aSweden Scotland16.0n/aAustralia39.720Luxembourg Northern Ireland 19.8n/aEngland35.9n/aFrance France20.721UK35.721Austria Spain20.822Northern Ireland 35.3n/aPoland UK20.923Spain35.022New Zealand Wales21.1n/aCanada34.823Greece England21.3n/aDenmark34.424Germany Iceland22.223Japan33.825Hungary Greece26.725Iceland31.126Portugal Italy31.426Scotland30.2n/aMexico Poland50.527Turkey28.127Slovak Republic Turkey55.928Poland19.228Italy Portugal60.029Portugal18.829Czech Republic Mexico74.630Mexico5.030Turkey16.030

The distribution of training across the UK EnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Ireland UKEnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Ireland UK All Qualification level AgeNo qualifications NVQ Level NVQ Level NVQ Level NVQ Level GenderNVQ Level Male Occupation Female Managers and senior officials With Disability Professional occupations No disability Associate professional and technical EthnicityAdministrative and secretarial White Skilled trades occupations Non-white Personal service occupations Employment status Sales and customer service occupations Full-time Process plant and machine operatives Part-time Elementary occupations Contract status Permanent Non-permanent

Qualification and skill matching across the nations of the UK, 2006 England % N. Ireland % Scotland % Wales % UK % Over-qualified Comprising real over-qualification formal over-qualification Over-skilled Under-qualified Qualification-matched Among which: Matched but over-skilled Source: Felstead, A. et al, Skills at Work, , 2007.

Scotland’s Futures Forum Public Policy Seminar Series The Future for Lifelong Learning: Implications for Scotland Professor Tom Schuller

Scottish Response Tony Coultas Skills Development Scotland 1 June 2009 Inquiry into the Future for Lifelong Learning: implications for Scotland

Scottish Response Learner experience Flexibility Innovation Systemic change