Oaverview of IPCC reports Kyoto, Copenhagen, Russia’s & America’s Role, IPCC Reports etc. June 2, 2014 Return to Home Page

IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson et al ENSO = El Nino/ Southern Oscillation COWL= cold ocean, warm land

IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson et al., 2008.

IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson e tal., 2008.

Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860

Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue) Figure 10.31

IPCC - WGI Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Anthropogenic warming is likely discernible on all inhabited continents Observed Expected for all forcings Natural forcing only

1000 Years of CO 2 and Temperatures Figure 10.29

Fig Global temperature trends, Annual & five-year means, the 0 baseline represents the global average - which is 14ºC (52.2ºF).

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I

Temperature trends

Temperature Anomalies Figure 10.30

10,000 Years of Greenhouse Gases Figure 10.32

Figure 10.34

What’s in the pipeline and what could come Warming will increase if GHG increase. If GHG were kept fixed at current levels, a committed 0.6°C of further warming would be expected by More warming would accompany more emission. 1.8 o C = 3.2 o F 2.8 o C = 5.0 o F 3.4 o C = 6.1 o F CO2 Eq o C = 1.0 o F

Surface Temperature Projections Figure 10.35

Changing winds, temperatures and storm tracks Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds and temperature patterns) Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and North Africa) Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and North Africa) Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).

A1B is a typical “business as usual” ( ) scenario: Global mean warming 2.8 o C; Much of land area warms by ~3.5 o C Arctic warms by ~7 o C; would be less for less emission

Projections of Future Changes in Climate New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.

Emissions & Stabilization Wedges