Area IIIB: Population Human Population

Measuring population change World Population Measuring population change population increases through births and immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration population change = (births + immigration) – (deaths + emigration) crude birth rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population per year crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population per year annual rate of change (%) = 100 * (birth rate – death rate)/1000

World Population population change, continued annual rate of change (%) = 100 * (birth rate – death rate)/1000 there are currently more births than deaths throughout the world (+ rate of change), but the rate of the world’s population growth has decreased annual population growth in 1963: 2.2% annual population growth in 2004: 1.2% but population base doubled from 3.2 to 6.4 billion during same time period

World Population population change, continued annual rate of change, continued difference between developed and developing countries developed countries: 0.25% developing countries: 1.46% six fastest growing countries: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia populations of China and India comprise 38% of world’s population next most populated country is the U.S. with 4.6% of world’s population

World Population population change, continued doubling time is one measure of population growth rule of 70 is a quick way to calculate doubling time in years divide 70 by growth rate (in %) to get doubling time in years example: if the population grows by 1.2% in 2004, divide 70 by 1.2, which equals 58 years

Factors affecting population change World Population Factors affecting population change fertility: number of births that occur to an individual woman in a population replacement-level fertility is the number of children needed to replace their parents total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children that a woman has during her fertile years there are apt to be between 7.2–10.6 billion people by 2050, with 97% of this growth to be in developing countries

Factors affecting population, cont. World Population Factors affecting population, cont. birth and fertility rates 1. importance of children to labor force 2. economic cost of raising and educating children 3. availability of private/public pension systems 4. access to family planning 5. educational and economic choices for women 6. infant mortality rate 7. marriage age of women 8. availability of abortion 9. availability of reliable birth control

Factors affecting population, cont. World Population Factors affecting population, cont. death rates 1. food supplies, nutrition, clean water 2. medical advances, public health, improved sanitation and personal hygiene

United States population World Population United States population baby-boom period: sharp rise in birth rate in U.S. from 1946–1964 at its peak, the TFR reached 3.7 children per woman there has been a gradual decline since then however, population growth of the U.S. is still greater than any other developed country other developed countries expected to have declining populations after 2010 U.S. has a high per capita rate of resource use  large effect on environment

United States population, continued World Population United States population, continued U.S. population grew by ~2.7 million people in 2004 55% from more births than deaths 45% from immigration the high U.S. per capita resource rate use produces enormous environmental impact

United States population, continued World Population United States population, continued immigration into the U.S. arguments to limit: aid in stabilizing population sooner help reduce environmental impact of U.S. arguments against limit: U.S. has been the land of opportunity for the world’s poor immigrants do work that Americans won’t do or handle jobs for which there are not enough trained natives immigrants contribute to the economy and pay taxes

Measures of population health World Population Measures of population health life expectancy: average number of years a newborn can expect to live infant mortality rate: number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first birthday reflects level of nutrition and health care best measure of a society’s quality of life U.S. infant mortality rate is relatively high: inadequate health care for poor women and for their babies (?) drug addiction among pregnant women, and a high birth rate among teenagers

World infant mortality rates

Population Age Structure Age structure diagrams major categories: 1. pre-reproductive ages span birth to 14 years of age major determining factor in a country’s future population 30% of planet’s population in 2004 2. reproductive ages include 15 through 44 3. post-reproductive ages include 45 and up

Population Age Structure Age structure changes economic and social effects example: baby boom generation in U.S. 1. can dominate the population’s demands for goods and services 2. influence elections, legislation and economic demand 3. retirement may create a shortage of workers

Population Age Structure Age structure changes, continued economic and social effects, continued example: baby bust generation 1. fewer people to compete for education, jobs, and services 2. may result in increase in wages 3. may be more difficult to get job promotions because a larger “baby-boom” group will occupy most upper-level positions. there is an echo-boom consisting of people born since 1977

Population Age Structure Age structure changes, continued reduced fertility and population decline can have long-term consequences, especially if decline is rapid 1. effects of gradual decline can usually be managed 2. reduced fertility can result in a sharp rise in proportion of older people, resulting in: sharp rise in public services/cost for health fewer working taxpayers, labor shortages necessity to raise retirement age, raise taxes, cut retirement benefits, and increase legal immigration

Population Age Structure Age structure changes, continued reduced fertility, population decline, cont. 3. if population declines because of deaths, consequences are serious a. deaths from disease disrupt a country’s social and economic structure b. large numbers of people at a particular age are removed from the country’s future 1) life expectancy drops 2) in the case of AIDS, deaths are mostly young adults (important to work force) 3) a major goal is to reduce the spread of HIV through education and health care

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Is a rising population sustainable? more growth = more consumption the world is already overpopulated basic necessities of life are not provided for one out of six people today declining health and environmental conditions will threaten the entire world increased resource use affects environment through infectious disease, biodiversity loss, fisheries depletion, water scarcity, pollution, climate change the quality of life on the planet and for all its people requires some limits on everyone

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Demographic transition demographic transition hypothesis: as countries become industrialized, first their death rates and then their birth rates decline in four stages 1. pre-industrial stage: high birth and death rates because living conditions are harsh 2. transitional state: food production rise and improvement in health care; death rates drop, and birth rates remain high

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Demographic transition, continued demographic transition hypothesis, cont. 3. industrial stage: birth rate begins to drop, and the death rate drops because of industrialization and medical advances; modernization is widespread 4. post-industrial stage: moves toward zero population growth (birth rate = death rate); population size will begin to slowly decrease

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Demographic transition, continued some countries run risk of getting caught in transitional state; economic conditions will not be available to sustain the population there can be a shortage of skilled workers to sustain the country’s economy there will not be capital and resources to support rapid developing economies international debt takes much of a country’s resources developed countries are not helping developing countries economically

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Reducing the population family planning can reduce number of births and abortions provides information on birth spacing, birth control, and health care has been responsible for at least 55% of the drop in TFRs in developing countries services come through educational and clinical services almost one-half of pregnancies in developing countries are unplanned and 26% end in abortion contraceptive access is a problem

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Reducing the population, continued family planning, continued family planning success can be improved: target programs to teenagers and unmarried, sexually active women develop programs for educating men about their responsibilities for the children they father (largely cultural?) provide more effective means of birth control for men advocate that pro-choice and pro-life groups join to reduce unplanned birth and abortions

Solutions: Influencing Population Size Reducing the population, continued empower women by providing education, paying jobs, and supporting their human rights women work two-thirds of all the hours worked, but receive 10% of the world’s income empowering women with these things would: slow population growth promote human rights reduce poverty slow environmental degradation

Case Studies: India and China overpopulation ills of poverty, malnutrition, and environmental problems abound almost half of the labor force is unemployed half the cropland is degraded due to soil erosion two-thirds of the water is seriously polluted efforts to limit population have not been especially successful because: poor couples believe they need several children for work and care strong preference for male children

Case Studies: India and China China has controlled population growth by a strongly enforced government program between 1972 and 2004, China’s birthrate was cut in half couples with one child are rewarded with extra food, larger pensions, better housing, bonuses, free school tuition, and preferential employment treatment for the child 83% of married women use modern contraception, provided free by the government

Case Studies: India and China China, continued China’s population has an enormous environmental impact that may affect its production of food the health clinics that used to provide basic health care for rural farm populations collapsed in the 1980s; now 9 out of 10 rural Chinese have no health insurance or social safety net

Cutting Global Population Growth 1994 U.N. Conference on Population and Development goal: stabilize world population at 7.8 billion people by 2050 provide universal access to family planning services and reproductive health care improve health care for infants, children, and pregnant women develop/implement national population policies improve status of women/expand education and job opportunities for young women increase the involvement of men in child-rearing responsibilities and family planning

Cutting Global Population Growth 1994 U.N. Conference on Population and Development, continued world population stabilization, continued sharply reduce poverty reduce unsustainable patterns of production and consumption experience of Japan, Thailand, S. Korea, Taiwan, Iran, China indicates goals can be achieved through a combination of family planning, poverty reduction, and elevation of the status of women