Enhanced Wording within the ZFP and CWF Products as Generated by the GFE Text Formatter (Employing Tropical Cyclone Wind Probabilities) Pablo Santos and Guy Rader WFO Miami, FL David Sharp and Matthew Volkmer WFO Melbourne, FL

TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 36 hour EXAMPLE Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions

TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 48 hour EXAMPLE Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions

TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 60 hour EXAMPLE Probability of Tropical Storm Conditions

EXAMPLE TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 36 hour Probability of Hurricane Conditions

EXAMPLE TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 48 hour Probability of Hurricane Conditions

EXAMPLE TC Wind Speed Probabilities on AWIPS-D2D (Incremental-form) Hurricane Charley knot / 60 hour For more information about tropical cyclone wind probabilities, please see: Knaff and DeMaria (2005) Gross et al. (2004) Probability of Hurricane Conditions

Proposed WFO Use During potential high impact weather events such as tropical cyclones, users want our ‘best forecast’, but also accompanied with an expression of uncertainty (or confidence) of that forecast. Therefore, we are exploring the use of TC Wind Probabilities to improve official text/tabular products: –To include situational expressions of uncertainty within the Zone Forecast Product (ZFP) and the Coastal Waters Forecast (CWF). –In the future, with success, then explore situational inclusion of tropical cyclone wind probability elements within the Point Forecast Matrices (PFM).

Improve ZFP & CWF Products The intent is to establish a set of rules for triggering enhanced wording which responsibly convey wind speed uncertainties within text forecasts according to the temporal period. This is accomplished through GFE automated formatters by making appropriate use of the following grids sets: –Hazard Grids –Wind Grids –Tropical Cyclone Wind 34 kt Probability Grids –Tropical Cyclone Wind 64 kt Probability Grids Initial development and testing was done off-line during the 2005 season; an aggressive examination is underway for the 2006 season.

Grid Set Descriptions Hazard Grids include Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning/Watch grids as issued: –For coastal zones by TPC –For inland zones by WFO –For marine zones by WFO Wind Grids represent the post-processed wind grids as generated by the TCM Wind tool, with WFO value added contributions for local effects (e.g., higher altitude terrain, gap winds, over inland lakes, etc.). The Tropical Cyclone Wind Probability Grids (as obtained through TPC) are the incremental-based (not cumulative) probabilities for 34 knot and 64 knot winds. The incremental probabilities for 50 knot winds are not needed for this application.

Series of Situation Rules According to the Forecast Period Forecast Periods – hours (~ Warning/Watch period) hours hours hours – hours (extended period) Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Information –Deterministic wind speeds have the most value during the hour period, and have decreasing value with increasing time. –Probabilistic wind speeds have increasing value with increasing time.

Text Formatters: Logic Hierarchy for Sensitivity PrioritySensitivityGrid Sets 1.Official Warnings, Official Watches Hazard Grids 2.Official ForecastWind Grids 3.Forecast Error64-knot Probability Grids, 34-knot Probability Grids Note: Forecast Error implies appreciation for the inherent uncertainties regarding the track, intensity, and size of the tropical cyclone. Message Sensitivity

Text Formatters: Baseline Phraseology HURRICANE CONDITIONS… …IMMINENT. …EXPECTED. …POSSIBLE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS… …IMMINENT. …EXPECTED. …POSSIBLE. Note: The word IMMINENT may be used only within the hour period and when conditions are simultaneously met within the hazard, wind, and probability grids. The word EXPECTED may be used in situations mainly during the Warning period, but may be selectively used in the Watch period (e.g., Day 1 & 2). The word POSSIBLE may be used during the extended period (e.g., Day 3 - 5), but may also be used in specific circumstances within Watch/Warning period. Also, certain situations may require compound phrases (e.g., Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Watch). Baseline Phraseology

Text Formatters: Probability Thresholds (Initial) Probability Thresholds Note: Initial thresholds were empirically-determined; future refinements are likely. PhrasePeriodH-ProbTS-Prob Imminent00-12 hr30%80% Expected00-12 hr15%50% hr12%45% hr10%40%

Text Formatters: Probability Thresholds (Initial) Probability Thresholds Note: Initial thresholds were empirically-determined; future refinements are likely. PhrasePeriodH-ProbTS-Prob Possible00-12 hr15%50% hr12%45% hr10%40% hr8%30% hr5%20% hr3%13%

For Example - An incremental-form 64-knot tropical cyclone wind probability depiction associated with Hurricane Wilma (2005) is used here to trigger the phrase ‘HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE’ in a later period of the ZFP and CWF. Valid time is 96 hours on 24 October 2005, 0000 UTC (from a start time on 20 October 2005, 0000 UTC). Note that values shown only range from 0 to 5%. 96 hour forecast

For Example – ZFP Extended WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…NAPLES…IMMOKALEE…FLAMINGO 1130 PM EDT WED OCT TONIGHT….THURSDAY….THURSDAY NIGHT….FRIDAY….FRIDAY NIGHT…BREEZY..SATURDAY…WINDY..SATURDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE..SUNDAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE..SUNDAY NIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE..MONDAY…BREEZY. Note: From the Hurricane Wilma (2005) test case, the experimental formatter output for the ZFP indicated POSSIBLE tropical cyclone conditions in the extended periods of the forecast. For brevity, only the descriptive wind elements are shown here. Formatter Output

ZFP Examples

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (13-24 Hours – Second Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (13-24 Hours – Second Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (25-36 Hours – Third Period)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

CWF Examples

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (0-12 Hours – First Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (13-24 Hours – Second Period)

Charley Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _0900 (13-24 Hours – Second Period)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (25-36 Hours – Third Period)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Frances Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _1500 (37-48 Hours – Fourth Period and Extended)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods)

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods) WHY??? Because the TCV Hazards grid only extended out 36 hours from advisory time. So for purposes of the algorithm there was no TRW/HUA for Friday.

Katrina Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (Second – Fifth Periods) NOTE??? Here TRW/HUA would have made no difference. EXPECTED reserved for the first four periods only.

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Wilma Example of How Algorithm works Advisory Time: _2100 (First through Third Periods)

Important Considerations When Editing Hazard Grids

Point About Headlines In CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT… …TROPICAL STORM WARNING… Situation: Caveat: TPC’s TCV is only for coastal counties. Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO. Rita: _0900 Advisory. HU.W South of Golden Beach. TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach Adjacent Map: Result of drawing Inland and Marine Hazards with Make_Hazard using Combination of Map Zone Selection and hand free Edit Areas. Requires Hand post editing of headlines to avoid confusion. Although for this particular case formatter pws phrase logic would work, the more complex and creative the forecaster gets, the better the chance the pws phrase logic will break down.

Point About Headlines In CWF for MIA/FLL Adjacent Marine Zone …HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT… Situation: Caveat: TPC’s TCV is only for coastal counties. Marine Zones are full responsibility of WFO. Rita: _0900 Advisory. HU.W South of Golden Beach. TR.W/HU.A North of Golden Beach Adjacent Map: Result of drawing Inland and Marine Hazards with Make_Hazard using Map Zone Selection ONLY. No Post Editing of headlines required. Perhaps best approach for simplicity. Formatter will most likely never give you trouble for pws phrase.

Details of Algorithm Program into the Formatters (Optional)

Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or (HU/I.W && TI.W) or (HU/I.A && TI.A) or (HI.W && HU/TR.A) or (HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) or (HU.W && TR.W) or (HU.A && TR.A) If W ≥ 64HU Expected Else If W ≥ 34 Else {Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa? Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W && TR.A) If W ≥ 34TR Expected Else ELSE Regular Phrasing…(Breezy, Windy, etc). Technically, we do not need to worry about the no watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this period because to begin with, we are not allowed to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time range we WILL be dealing with some sort of watch/warning. This is also the situation where if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this algorithm to work properly. However, just in case, see next slide. If PWS34 && PWS64 Present Else {Reg Phrasing} 0-12 Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase Also) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa? See Next Slide Else If pws64 ≥ 15 HU Possible Else If pws64 ≥ 15 TR Possible If (HU/I.A && TR/I.W) or (HU.A && TR.A && TR.W) If W ≥ 34 TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected second forecast period and prob thresholds are not met first period or viceversa? Else If pws64 ≥ 15 TR Possible with HU Also Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50 or W ≥ 25 TR Possible If pws34 ≥ 80 TR Imminent with HU Also Possible Else If pws64 ≥ 30HR ImminentElse If pws34 ≥ 80TR ImminentElse TR Possible with HU Also Possible If pws34 ≥ 80 TR Imminent with HU Also Possible Else TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else If pws64 ≥ 15 && W ≥ 50 HU Expected Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected Else If pws34 ≥ 50 && W ≥ 25 TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50 or W ≥ 25

If W ≥ 64HU Possible Else If W ≥ 34TR Possible Else{Regular Phrasing} ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE 0-12 Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids not present) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively Else If pws64 ≥ 15HU Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 50TR Possible NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for warning period: 0-24 hours…pws64=15, 30 to trigger use of imminent; pws34=50, 80 to trigger use of imminent

If W ≥ 64 or (pws64 ≥ 12 && W ≥ 50) HU Expected Else {Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa? TR Expected Else ELSE Regular Phrasing…(Breezy, Windy, etc). Technically, we do not need to worry about the no watch/warning with winds above 34 knots in this period because to begin with, we are not allowed to depict them unless TCM driven and in this time range we WILL be dealing with some sort of watch/warning. This is also the situation where if the wind radii impact offshore waters, then WFO MUST make sure they place those zones in a watch or warning (not wait for TPC) for this algorithm to work properly. However, just in case, see next slide. If PWS34 && PWS64 Present Else {Reg Phrasing} Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase Also) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa? See Next Slide Else If pws64 ≥ 12 HU Possible Else If pws64 ≥ 12 TR Possible If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25) TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected third forecast period and prob thresholds are not met second period or viceversa? Else If pws64 ≥ 12 TR Possible with HU Also Possible TR Possible TR Possible with HU Also Possible TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25) If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 45 && W ≥ 25) Else If TR/I.W or TR/I.A or (TI.W && TR.A) Else If pws34 ≥ 45 or W ≥ 25 If (HU/I.A && TR/I.W) or (HU.A && TR.A && TR.W) Else If HU/I.W or HU/I.A or (HU/I.W && TI.W) or (HU/I.A && TI.A) or (HI.W && HU/TR.A) or (HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) or (HU.W && TR.W) or (HU.A && TR.A)

If W ≥ 64HU Possible Else If W ≥ 34TR Possible Else{Regular Phrasing} ELSE FROM PREVIOUS SLIDE Hours Decision Tree (HU/HI or TR/TI grids not present) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively Else If pws64 ≥ 12HU Possible Else If pws34 ≥ 45TR Possible NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for warning period: 0-24 hours…pws64=12, pws34=45

HU Expected TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else TR Expected Else If PWS34 && PWS64 Present Else {Reg Phrasing} Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase Also) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively Else If pws64 ≥ 10 HU Possible Else If pws64 ≥ 10 TR Possible TR Expected with HU Also Possible Else {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected 4 th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa? Else If pws64 ≥ 10 TR Possible TR Possible with HU Also Possible See Next Slide {Regular Phrasing} What if HU expected 4 th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa? {Regular Phrasing} What if TR expected 4 th forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3th period or viceversa? If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25) If W ≥ 64 or (pws64 ≥ 10 && W ≥ 50) Else If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25) If W ≥ 34 or (pws34 ≥ 40 && W ≥ 25) Else If TR/I.W or (TI.W && TR.A) Else If pws34 ≥ 40 or W ≥ 25 If (HU/I.A && TR/I.W) or (HU.A && TR.A && TR.W) Else If HU/I.W or (HU/I.W && TI.W) or (HI.W && HU/TR.A) or (HU.A && HU.W && TR.W) Or (HU.W && TR.W) or

If W ≥ 50 or pws64 ≥ 10HU Possible Else If W ≥ 25 or pws34 ≥ 40 Else Else If TR/I.AIf W ≥ 34TR Possible Else ELSE From Previous Slide Hours Decision Tree (Includes Wind Phrase Also) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone HU/I and TR/I mean HU or HI and TR or TI, respectively {Regular Phrasing} What if HU is forecast in the 4 th period instead of the 3 rd forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3 rd period or viceversa? Else If pws64 ≥ 10 {Regular Phrasing} What if TR is forecast in the 4 th period instead of the 3 rd forecast period and prob thresholds are not met 3 rd period or viceversa? Use same algorithm as (except for inclusion of wind phrase) to determine HU or TR Possible. NOTE: Preliminary thresholds for watch period: hours…pws64=10; pws34=40 TR Possible TR Possible with HU Also Possible If pws64 ≥ 10 TR Possible with HU Also Possible Else TR Possible with HU Also Possible Else If HU/I.A or (HU/I.A && TI.A) or (HU.A && TR.A) Else If pws34 ≥ 40 or W ≥ 25

If pws64 ≥ XX HU Possible Else If W ≥ 64 HU Possible If PWS34 && PWS64 Present Hours Decision Tree (No Wind Phrase) HU – Hurricane Conditions, TR – TS Conditions, W means MaxW in Forecast Period/Zone Else If pws34 ≥ XX TR Possible Else If W ≥ 34) TR Possible Else {Regular Phrasing} NOTE: XX thresholds are a function of time; preliminary thresholds hours…pws64=8; pws34= hours…pws64=5; pws34= hours...pws64=3; pws34=13