The science-policy interface at MNP INTARESE training on uncertainty & quality, 16/17 October 2007 Arthur Petersen

2 The de Kwaadsteniet affair “The reality content of very many of the numbers presented in the State of the Environment 1998 must be seriously doubted, since accuracies have practically nowhere been quantified in this study” (Trouw, 20 January 1999) “The presented emission levels do not have sufficient backing and the changes over time should often be considered as statistical noise resulting from the estimation procedure” (Trouw, 20 January 1999)

3 Example: N 2 O emissions SotE 1998 (emission in million kg): 1990: 65,91995: 72,11997: 72,1 SotE 2002 (emission in million kg): 1990: : : 52 uncertainty in emission estimate: 50% trend in emissions 1990  2000: +3% (emission in 2000 was 54 million kg) uncertainty in trend: 12% (thus the trend is between –9% en +15%)

4 IBM Supercomputer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

5 Also the result of computer simulation: the weather forecast

6 de Kwaadsteniet versus van Egmond de Kwaadsteniet: “Computer simulations are seductive due to their perceived speed, clarity and consistency. However, simulation models are not rigorously compared with data.” van Egmond: “Policy makers are confronted with incomplete knowledge; task of scientific advisers to report on the current state of knowledge, including uncertainties. Simulation models are indispensable.”

7 Importance of uncertainty communication (van der Vlist, Director-General for Environmental Protection) Politicians must decide under uncertainty (ultimate responsibility for decision-making – don’t shift responsibility to experts) The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) must bring all relevant scientific arguments into the political debate through their assessments MNP must inspire the Ministry in openness and dealing with uncertainties

8 Origin of RIVM/MNP Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication Scientific Audit (2000): “RIVM should consider making a project to systematically address terminology, methodology, interpretation and communication of incertitude.” RIVM report van Asselt et al. (2001): “RIVM needs a protocol or at least a guideline that describes which uncertainty management steps need to be taken in which phase of the assessment process.”

9 Purpose of the Guidance Offer assistance to analysts Focussed on the following parts of assessments: –problem framing –involvement of stakeholders –selection of indicators –appraisal of knowledge base –mapping and assessment of relevant uncertainties –reporting of uncertainty information

10 Detailed Guidance Structure of the Guidance Quickscan Hints & Actions List Quickscan Questionnaire Mini-Checklist Tool Catalogue for Uncertainty Assessment Downloads: - keyword: rivm/mnp Reminder list Invokes Reflection Portal to QS Further Guidance Advice Hints & Implications Advice on Quantitative + Qualitative tools for UA

The reflexive practitioner INTARESE training on uncertainty & quality, 16/17 October 2007 Arthur Petersen

12 The challenge of post-normal science Expert advisers should be reflexive Methods for dealing with uncertainty should merely be considered as tools, not as the solutions Fear for paralysis in policy making should not be allowed to block communication about uncertainty Communication with a wider audience about uncertainties is crucial

13 Funtowicz and Ravetz, Science for the Post Normal age, Futures, 1993

14 Elements of Post Normal Science Appropriate management of uncertainty quality and value-ladenness Plurality of commitments and perspectives Internal extension of peer community (involvement of other disciplines) External extension of peer community (involvement of stakeholders in environmental assessment & quality control)

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