Northwest Power Planning Council Residential Space Conditioning and Domestic Hot Water Conservation Resource Assessment Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptions February 27, 2008

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 2 What’s Covered – Space Conditioning Three Building Types Three Building Types –Single Family (up to & including 4-plex) –Multifamily (5-plex & above) –Manufactured/Mobile Homes Three Vintages Three Vintages –Pre-1980 –1980 – 1992 –Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction) –May add 4 th – Post 2008 OR/WA/IEEC

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 3 What’s Covered (cont) Measures/Technologies/Practices Measures/Technologies/Practices –Thermal Shell Improvements –Duct Sealing –Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps –Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Efficiency Upgrades

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 4 Analytical Process – Measure Cost-Effectiveness Baseline Characteristics C&R D Reports Current Codes Market Surveys Federal Standards Prototype Simulations Eleven Buildings Five locations Adjusted for “system” efficiency Nine Climate Zone Combinations 3 Heating 3 Cooling PROCOST Market Price Forecast Load Shapes T&D Losses & Value Non-Energy Benefits Unit Level Results “Optimized” Measure Order Cost-Effectiveness Determination

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 5 Analytical Process – Interactive Measures Building Thermal Shells Insulated to Cost- Effectiveness Limit Ducts Sealed and Insulated to Cost- Effectiveness Limit Heat Pump Conversions/Upgrades to Cost-Effectiveness Limit Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 6 Analytical Process – “Applicable Units” Housing Stock Housing Stock –Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2025 –Built Post-1980/Pre1993, surviving in 2025 –Built between 2005 – 2025 Duct Systems & Space Conditioning Equipment Duct Systems & Space Conditioning Equipment –Single Family and Manufactured Homes –Heating & Cooling Equipment Installed in New Construction and Replaced “on burn out”

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 7 Summary of 5 th Residential Space Conditioning Supply Curve Technical Potential Economic Potential

Summary of 5 th Plan Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Potential by Measure

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 9 What’s Covered – Water Heating High Efficiency Tanks High Efficiency Tanks Heat Pump and Solar Water Heaters Heat Pump and Solar Water Heaters 2.0 GPM Showerheads 2.0 GPM Showerheads GFX Wastewater Heat Recovery GFX Wastewater Heat Recovery

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 10 Analytical Process – Interactive Measures Standby Loss Adjusted to Reflect Cost- Effective Efficiency Improvements Heat Pump and Solar Water Heating Cost- Effectiveness Determined Waste Water Heat Recovery Cost- Effectiveness Determined Water Use Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Water Fixture Efficiency Improvements Post-Retrofit/Upgrade Use

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 11 Heat Pump and PTCS Commissioning Cost Estimates Three Sources: Three Sources: –Existing RTF cost estimate based on federal Department of Energy data from standards setting process –STAC – Survey of regional HVAC contractors (preliminary returns from 23 contractors –Online HVAC equipment sales sites (“box cost” only)

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 12 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 7.7/SEER 13 Three Ton Heat Pump

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 13 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 14 Cost to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 15 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 8.5/SEER 14 Three Ton Heat Pump

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 16 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of HSPF 9.0/SEER 15 Three Ton Heat Pump

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 17 Incremental “Cost” to Consumers of PTCS System Commissioning

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 18 Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample of OTEC Program Participants UnitCostCOPEER Capacity (Tons) 1$10, $19, $19, $17, $10, $12, Average$14,

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 19 Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Sample of OTEC Program Participants UnitCostNotes 1$10,793 Customer did own trenching and backfilling 2$19,412 New furnace and ductwork; 6 trenches 150’ each with header main line) 3$19,162 New construction, includes ductwork of 22 runs and two returns) The ground was very rocky and took more labor for digging. 4$17,000 All done by contractor 5$10,260 Customer did own trenching and backfilling 6$12,500 Average$14,855 All Systems

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 20 Geothermal Heat Pump Cost: Source Mark Jerome, Pacific Air Comfort Installed Cost LowMidHigh GSHP Cost $7,500$9,000$10,500 Loop$5,000$8,000$12,000 Commissioning & Other $1,000$1,000$1,000 Baseline Air Source HP Baseline Air Source HP$2,400$3,300$4,400 GSHP Incremental Cost $11,100$14,700$19,100

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 21 Geothermal Heat Pump Cost/Ton Existing RTF vs. Alternative Cost Estimates

Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 22 Data Needs Retrofit Shell Upgrade Cost Retrofit Shell Upgrade Cost New Construction Shell Upgrade Cost New Construction Shell Upgrade Cost High Efficiency HVAC Upgrade Cost High Efficiency HVAC Upgrade Cost PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning Cost PTCS Duct Sealing and Commissioning Cost Sub-metered or “PRISM” based end use consumption estimates for space and water heating by building type and vintage Sub-metered or “PRISM” based end use consumption estimates for space and water heating by building type and vintage