James Goldstene California Air Resources Board AB 32: The Global Warming Solutions Act of th LEA/CIWMB Partnership Conference October 16, 2007

Global Warming Impacts and Sources

Projected Global Warming Impacts in California 75% loss in snow pack 1-2 foot sea level rise 70 more extreme heat days/year 80% more ‘likely ozone’ days 55% more large forest fires Twice the drought years

Projected Global Warming Impact on California, (as compared with ) 70-80% loss in Sierra snowpack inches of sea level rise times as many heat wave days Medium-High Emissions (5.5-8 °F) 90% loss in Sierra snowpack inches of sea level rise 3-4 times as many heat wave days Business as Usual Emissions ( °F) °F Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California (2006), % loss in Sierra snowpack 6-14 inches of sea level rise times as many heat wave days Lower Emissions (Governor’s 2050 target) (3-5.5 °F)

California GHG Emissions CEC, “Inventory of California Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: ” (2006), GHG EMISSION SOURCES [~500 MMT CO 2 eq] GHG EMISSIONS BY TYPE CO 2, N 2 O HFCsCO 2, CH 4, N 2 O CO 2

Magnitude of the Challenge California’s GHG Emission Inventory 11

AB 32 Implementation Timelines

California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) GHG reduction measures operative GHG reduction measures adopted Publish list of early actions Publish scoping plan Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline Adopt enforceable early action regulations Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels Identification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategies

AB 32 Implementation Oct 2007Board Hearing - Early Action Measures Nov 2007Board Hearing baseline Nov 2007 Dec 2007 Dec/Jan 2007 Scoping Plan Structure Workshop Board Hearing - Mandatory Reporting Reg. Sector-based workshops on measures and tools Mar 2008Workshop on scenarios June 2008Draft Scoping Plan released June/July 2008Scoping Plan Workshops Oct 2008Final Scoping Plan Proposal released Nov 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Board Hearing - Scoping Plan Early Action Measures must be adopted Early Action Measures must be enforceable

Near Term Activities

1990 Emissions Level and 2020 Limit Update statewide GHG emission inventory Statewide 1990 GHG emissions level establishes 2020 limit 1990 level and 2020 limit are based on statewide, aggregated emissions 2020 limit not sector specific Present to Board by January 1, 2008

Mandatory Reporting Requirements Reporting regulation approved by January 1, 2008 Begin with sources contributing the most to statewide emissions Ensure rigorous accounting methods Account for all electricity consumed, including imports

AB 32 Early Action Provision Requires Board to identify a list of “discrete early action greenhouse gas reduction measures” by June 30, 2007 –Must be enforceable by January 1, 2010 Board identified 37 early action measures to be initiated in the 2007 – 2012 timeframe; 3 are “discrete” –Board directed staff to further evaluate stakeholder recommendations. –Staff recommends expanding list of early actions to 44 measures; 9 “discrete”

List of Discrete Early Actions Low Carbon Fuel Standard Reduction of HFC-134a from DIY motor vehicle air conditioning servicing Improved Landfill Methane Capture Restrictions on High GWP Refrigerants Green Ports (cold ironing) SmartWay Truck Efficiency Tire Inflation Reduction of PFCs from semiconductor industry SF6 reductions from non-electrical sector

Scoping Plan Process

Scoping Plan To develop the Plan, ARB staff will: –Compile possible reduction measures and tools –Build and analyze emission reduction scenarios –Develop recommended staff proposal Board must approve Scoping Plan by January 1, 2009

Nov. 30 Scoping Plan Roll Out Workshop Dec. 14 Sector-Based Workshop Mid-Jan. Tools Workshop Late-Mar. Scenarios Workshop June/July Workshops on the Scoping Plan Scoping Plan Workshop Schedule

Advisory Committees and Climate Action Team

Advisory Committees Environmental Justice Committee Economic and Technology Advancement Advisory Committee Market Advisory Committee –Committee presented recommendations at July 2007 Board meeting

Climate Action Team Created in June, 2005 Agencies other than ARB are lead for important components Many GHG reduction activities cut across agency boundaries Climate Action Team overseeing coordinated effort at state level

Climate Action Team Subgroups Local Government/Smart Growth/Land Use State Fleet Agriculture Green Buildings Forestry Cement Landfills/Digester Water/Energy Efficiency

Next Steps Adopt mandatory reporting and 1990 baseline/2020 target Continue regulatory development process for the “discrete early actions” adopted by Board Continue development of other early actions Continue progress on scoping plan and other tasks

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