Modelling needs and resources of older people to 2030 LSHTM contribution and plans Resources: 15% of EG throughout (focussed some time periods) c. 12 months.

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Presentation transcript:

Modelling needs and resources of older people to 2030 LSHTM contribution and plans Resources: 15% of EG throughout (focussed some time periods) c. 12 months of a researcher tba will probably create combined 20 month post using resources available from a related European project. Also contribution of Linda Pickard to WP4 EG in Norway Jan-mid Feb Plan to start work on NDA in March.

LSHTM -Input into work package 3 (changing family unit and kinship – and through this linkage also with WP 1 – mortality trends) Lead on work package 4, Household and Family Resources

NDA – LSHTM Contribution WP 4 Brief: Modelling of demographic and other determinants of household type and household type transitions Modelling of associations between family Resources, socio-economic circumstances and social participation

Workplan LSHTM 1) Literature review and programme interaction/development: [question: how how we going to co-ordinate literature review work to avoid duplication?]. 2) Analyses of ONS LS data 3) Analyses of survey data, principally ELSA.

Workplan: Analyses based on ONS LS 1) Analysis of period changes in marital status mortality differentials using data from the ONS LS (1971-5; ; ; ). – Contribution to WP 3 2) Cross sequential analyses of ONS LS to illuminate trends and variations in intergenerational co-residence and proportions moving to live with relatives (builds on earlier work) 3) More detailed analysis of household transitions in ONS LS.

The ONS Longitudinal Study of England & Wales Census data for individuals with one of four birthdates enumerated at the 1971 Census (c. 1% of population) Maintained through addition of immigrants and new births with LS birth date Information from later censuses (1981, 91 & 2001) added Linked event data including death of the spouse of sample members and deaths of sample members.

Proportion (%) of elderly men and women living in households with two or more generations, England and Wales, 1971 and 2001(private household population). MenWomen Source: Analysis of ONS LS data.

Proportion (%) of people aged 65 and over who changed family/household type between censuses; ; ; by age and family/household type at start of decade Source: Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades from Glaser & Grundy 1998)

Proportion (%) of people aged 65 and over who remained at same address & in same family/household type at succeeding censuses; ; ; by age and family/household type at start of decade Source: Analysis of ONS LS data (earlier decades from Glaser & Grundy 1998)

Results of logistic regression model of proportions making a transition from a private to an institutional household OR95% CIP Age ** Gender (ref. male) * Marital status in 2001 (ref. married) Never-married ** Wid./div ** Tenure in 1991 (ref. owner) Not owner ** Long term illness in 2001 (ref none) ** Long term illness in 1991 (ref none) ** Region in 1991 (ref South) Central NS North * Wales NS *P<0.05; **P<0.001 Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data

% of women aged 65+ in 1991 in a communal establishment by 2001 and odds of transition to a communal establishment by parity. Odds ratios (95% CI) % changing from private household in 1991 to communal establishment by 2001 Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study data controlling for age, marital status, household type in 1991, health indicators and housing tenure.

% of women and men who were in private households in 1991 but in communal establishments in 2001 by age group and grouped region in 1991 Women Men Source: Analysis of ONS Longitudinal Study

Workplan: survey analysis ELSA analysis: Waves 1 and 2, and also 3. Analysis of links c. family contact and contacts with friends and social participation more generally. Numbers a constraint.