Urban Land Institute Moving Cooler – An Analysis of Transportation Strategies for Reducing GHG Emissions Study Authored: July 2009

Study Authorship and Governance Study Author Cambridge Systematics, Inc. - Specializes in transportation, dedicated to ensuring that transportation investments deliver the best possible results. It is recognized as a leader in the development and implementation of innovative policy and planning solutions, objective analysis, and technology applications. Works to build the capacity of the transportation community to understand and address both sides of the climate change challenge: to develop strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, and to prepare for the potential effects of climate change on transportation systems. Moving Cooler Steering Committee American Public Transportation Association - Rob Padgette Environmental Defense Fund - Michael Replogle Federal Highway Administration - April Marchese and John Davies Federal Transit Administration - Tina Hodges Intelligent Transportation Society of America - Leslie Bellas Natural Resources Defense Council - Deron Lovaas and Nathan Sandwick Shell Oil Company - Miriam Conner Urban Land Institute - Robert Dunphy, Rachelle Levitt, and Dean Schwanke U.S. Environmental Protection Agency - Ken Adler Project Facilitation Collaborative Strategies Group, LLC 2 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Objectives Assess the potential effectiveness of a wide variety of transportation strategies – under a broad range of different assumptions – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. – Focus was mainly on Travel Activity and Vehicle and System Operations (transportation network improvements) and less on Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Technologies Study does not provide specific recommendations about the direction of transportation and climate change policies. Serves as companion study to: – 2007 McKinsey & Company, Conference Board Report, Reducing US Greenhouse Gas Emissions: How much At What Cost? and; – 2008 Urban Land Institute Report, Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change

Methodology   Develop baseline projecting GHG from 2010 to 2050 Based on the EIA AEO & DOE’s review of CAFE Develop alternative baseline scenarios given uncertainties (3) + Obama Admin Proposal w/Baseline VMT base line 1.High Fuel Price, Low VMT 2.Low Fuel Price, High VMT 3.High Technology, High VMT Develop independent strategies to understand the impacts Develop and examine 6 strategy bundles to understand independencies and associated impacts Examine each strategy bundle against an aggressive deployment level vs. a maximum level 1.Pricing strategies 2.Land use and smart growth strategies 3.Non-motorized transportation strategies 4.Public transportation improvement strategies 5.Regional ride- sharing, car-sharing, commuting strategies, 6.Regulatory strategies 7.Operational and intelligent transportation system strategies 8.Bottleneck relief and capacity expansion strategies, and 9.Multimodal freight strategies Dimensions: geographic, time frame and intensity Levels: 1.Expanded current effort, 2.more aggressive (faster, broader, stronger implementation), 3.maximum effort (comprehensive, rapid, intense implementation) 1.Near term/early results 2.Long term/maximum results 3.Land use/transit/non- motorized transportation 4.System and Driver efficiency 5.Facility Pricing 6.Low Cost Step 1Step 2Step 3Step 4Step 5

Methodology Step 3 – Develop Independent Strategies to Understand the Impacts Nearly 50 strategies pertaining to Travel Activity and Vehicle Systems Operations were examined. These were generated from prior impacts of strategies, domestic and internationally, literature reviews, study team discussions. 9 categories emerged: – Pricing strategies, – Land use and smart growth strategies, – non-motorized transportation strategies, – public transportation improvement strategies, – regional ride-sharing, car-sharing, commuting strategies, – regulatory strategies – operational and intelligent transportation system strategies – bottleneck relief and capacity expansion strategies, and – multimodal freight strategies

Methodology Step 4 - Develop and examine 6 strategy bundles Six strategy bundles emerged that represent a culmination of actions of a common thrust: – Near–term early results – results by 2015 – Long-term maximum results – maximize results without regard to cost, scale, or timeframe of implementation – Land use/transit/non-motorized transportation – focuses on interaction of urban-area strategies that increase density and encourage mode shifts, shorter trips, and increases walking, biking etc. – System and driver efficiency – improve multi-modal system efficiency with reduced speeds, driving efficiencies, maximizing use of existing capacity, reducing congestion – Facility pricing – tolls, congestion pricing, parking fees etc to induce changes in behavior and patterns, coupled with highway capacity expansion and transit service – Low cost – deploying the most cost effective strategies to gain reductions

Methodology Step 5 – Examine strategy bundle against various deployment levels 3 levels of deployments across 3 dimensions were considered: – Dimensions: Geographic Time Frame Intensity – Levels: Expanded current effort More aggressive (faster, broader, stronger implementation) Maximum effort (comprehensive, rapid, intense implementation)

A Comparison of Scope Focus AreaMoving CoolerNPC - FTF Reduce VMT E Reduce GHG – 2005 Baseline E by 83%(all sectors) E by 50% Transportation System improvements E Vehicle fuel efficiency E Vehicle technological advancement required E Fuel processing advancement required E Infrastructure advancements required E Improve energy security E Improve economic competitiveness E 8 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Analysis Results Summary: Costs and GHG Reductions Strategy BundlesGHG Reduction (Gt)Implementation Costs - billions Change in Vehicle Costs - billions Net Cost per Tonne Near term early results 7.1$676-$3211-$356 Long term maximum results 7.6$2611-$4846-$293 Land use/transit/non- motorized transportation 3.8$1439-$3270-$484 System/driver efficiency 5.0$1870-$2214-$69 Facility pricing1.4$2371-$1121-$891 Low cost7.5$599-$3499-$387 Summary of Bundle Results 2010 to 2050 – Aggressive Deployment 9 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Analysis Results GHG Reduction Percent Cumulative GHG Reduction from Baseline Bundle Aggressive Deployment Percent Cumulative GHG Reduction Maximum Deployment Percent Cumulative GHG Reduction Near Term/Early Results Long Term/Max Results Land Use/Transit/Non- motorized System/Driver Efficiency Facility Pricing Low Cost Percent Cumulative Reductions from Baseline (Aggressive and Maximum) 2020, 2030, ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Appendix 11 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 12 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 13 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 14 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 15 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 16 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 17 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011

Excerpt from July 28, 2009 Briefing Presentation 18 ULI Moving Cooler - Overview Presentation to CSC March 24, 2011