Prospects for Ocean (Re)analyses James A. Carton University of Maryland Benjamin S. Giese Texas A&M University Outline: Current analyses Global heat storage:

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Presentation transcript:

Prospects for Ocean (Re)analyses James A. Carton University of Maryland Benjamin S. Giese Texas A&M University Outline: Current analyses Global heat storage: 0/700m temperature Upper ocean properties: mixed layers, water masses Future of SODA

Twelve Ocean (re)analyses AnalysisTime SpanAnalysis procedure CERFACS Davey (2005) Sequential ECMWF sequential GECCO Köhl et al. (2006) DVar GFDL 1,2 Sun et al. (2007) Sequential, Coupled Sequential GODAS Behringer (2005) Sequential INGV Davey (2005) Sequential ISHII Ishii et al. (2006) Objective analysis LEVITUS Levitus et al. (2005) Objective analysis SODA Carton and Giese (2007) Sequential UK-OI Objective Analysis UK-FOAM Bell. (2000), Bell et al. (2004) Sequential No model

Levitus (2005)

Heat Content by decade Vertical/Time Structure 

Correlation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation Colors – heat content Contours - SST

Analysis-CTD Observation Differences

Response to volcanic aerosols El Chichon minus (after-before) Average response of five simulations of GFDL CM2.1 

Water mass properties Time-mean thickness of the surfaces North Pacific subtropical mode water Eastern North Pacific subtropical mode water

Root-mean-square mode water variability (colors) and mixed layer variability

Response of the North Pacific to Heavy precipitation (’95-’97) Hawaii Ocean Time series Lukas (2001) How the analyses respond: Salinity on the sigma=24.5 surface Heavy rainfall Time  Depth  Salinity Precip

Future of SODA Continuing to address problems with hydrologic cycle, sea ice, etc. Shift to Letkf Centennial (following Compo) Accompanying bio-geochemistry

Displaced pole horizontal grid 900x720x40 = 25M grid points State Variables: u, v, T, S, … Time step: 20min (26K ts/yr)

Current Model Mixing –KPP, bi-harmonic Winds –ERA40 daily stress –QuikSCAT Topography –Sandwell and Smith (etopo30) with McClean modifications for some passages Freshwater flux –GPCP precipitation when avail., bulk formula evaporation, seasonal river discharge. Relaxation to clim. salinity under ice. Heat flux –Bulk formula Sea ice –Observed monthly cover Tracers  CFCs, …

In situ SST Observations

Temperature profile distribution

Conclusions We have begun comparing the ocean analyses led by GODAE BTs have clear warm bias in the 1970s. Several efforts are underway to address this problem Sequential ocean reanalyses show qualitative agreement when vertically averaged except in the Southern Ocean Vertical structure of the stratification in the upper ocean and its variability remains uncertain. These issues need to be improved before coupled assimilation will be useful.