Brazil’s Bilateral and Plurilateral Trade Agenda

Trade relevant facts (2003) Annual export: USD 83 bio ~ 1,2% of world trade Industrial exports amount to ~ 60% of Brazil’s total exports Agricultural exports amount to ~ 40% of Brazil’s total exports Ranks third in world share of total agricultural exports 3% of world’s population, GDP and investments 7th biggest consumer in the world 15th biggest economy in the world One of the BRICs

Context for RTAs post-1985 Democratization ”Lost decade” Liberalization International insertion

1985-today Plurilateral MERCOSUR (1991) Bilateral MERCOSUR-Bolivia Association Agreement (1996) MERCOSUR-Chile Association Agreement (1996)

Ongoing negotiations Bilateral MERCOSUR-EU MERCOSUR-SACU MERCOSUR- Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador MERCOSUR-Peru MERCOSUR-Mexico MERCOSUR-India MERCOSUR-Egypt Plurilateral FTAA

EU-MERCOSUR and FTAA Background Issues Threats & Opportunities Status Link to Doha Development Agenda

Trade relations (2003) ExportImportIndustrial share Agricultural share EU~22%~24%~50% FTAA~55%~ 50%~70%

Timeline Preparatory phase Formal Launch ConclusionEiF FTAA EU- MERCOSUR

Issues One (FTAA) vs. three (EU- MERCOSUR) pillars All WTO-trade areas on the table Labour and environment excluded Scope differs

Political and strategic threats EU-MERCOSUR Negotiation is test case for MERCOSUR Future policy autonomy Compromising perception of Brazil as developing country leader FTAA Negotiation is test case for MERCOSUR Can MERCOSUR survive in an FTAA? Future policy autonomy Brazil isolated in its ”own region”

…and opportunities EU-MERCOSUR Institutional strengthening of MERCOSUR Power equilibrium FTAA Lock-in of reforms at national level

Socio-economic threats EU-MERCOSUR Erosion of gains vis- à-vis the WTO Limited gains in industry ”Sensitive issues” FTAA Erosion of gains vis- à-vis the WTO Limited gains in agriculture ”Sensitive issues”

…and opportunities EU-MERCOSUR Increased agricultural exports Increased investments FTAA Increased industrial exports to the US Increased investments ”Investment guarantee” Protection of preferential access to US market

Status EU-MERCOSUR Exchanging offers Possibility of meeting in October New Commission Probable extension of deadline What happens in the WTO? FTAA Standstill: Offers and modalities New president No new meeting scheduled Extension of deadline Bilateralisation within the negotiation What happens in the WTO?

Link to the WTO Timing Issues Alliances Concessions

Future perspectives Conclude ongoing pluri- and bilateral negotiations? Initiate new bilateral negotiations? MERCOSUR-Central America MERCOSUR-Japan MERCOSUR-China MERCOSUR-South Korea MERCOSUR-Thailand MERCOSUR-Russia MERCOSUR-Morocco

Conclusions : Mixed results for Brazil’s regional and multilateral negotiations Bilateralization of trade agreements in the Western Hemisphere Increased focus on South-South bilateral trade agreements combined with a wait-and-see approach concerning the FTAA and EU-MERCOSUR negotiations South-South trade cannot in the short run replace US and EU, but importance has increased, both economically and strategically Complementary strategy is still needed