Climate Risk and Resilient City: Challenge and Awareness in China PAN Jihua, ZHENG Yan, XIE Xinlu, ZHOU Yamin, WANG Jianwu, ZHU Shouxian, et al. December 2 nd 2011, Durban, South Africa Institute of Urban & Environmental Studies (IUE), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) NSFC Project (No )

Contents Climate risks and challenges for adaptation in China Challenges for building resilient cities Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into urban strategy

Climate Risks in China & Challenges for adaptation

Economic Losses of GDP in total Weather related disasters in China ( ) Economic Losses of GDP in different weather disasters in China ( )

Climate Vulnerability Mapping for China ( )

因 子 Component 指 标 Indicators Climate Sensitivity (0.36)) Population Vulnerability (0.22) Social Devt (0.18) Environmental Disasters (0.12) Ecological Vulnerability (0.12) Climate Disasters losses in GDP(% ） ( ) Affected Population in Total (%) Pysicians GDP per capita Climate Sensitivity Sectors in total （ % ） Adaptation inputs （ % ） Family burden Vulnerable population rate Illiteracy （ % ） Income Disparity Life Expectation Environmental disasters Water resources pressure Forest coverage (%)

Preliminary findings: The top 3 most Vulnerable provinces were Gansu, Ningxia and Guizhou, which is consistent with the climate capacity discrepancy. The West regions are more vulnerable than the coastal and East regions in China, since the former ones were more sensitive to climate hazards and socially vulnerable. CHALLENGES: Geographical unbalance in climate risks and vulnerability Increasing wealth and more exposed physical capitals: esp in coastal developed areas Aging society with more exposure population

Challenges for building resilient cities

Fast Urbanization in China since 1980s Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Ningbo, Hongkong, …ranking among top 20 coastal cities with high climate risk by 2050 (OECD,2008 ）

Vulnerable mega-cities in China

Vulnerability measurement for mega- cities in China Chongqing ranked in the top one vulnerable city among the 4 municipalities, cause its more vulnerable population rate, higher climate sensitivity and environmental disasters.

Challenges for building resilient cities Weakness & Strengths of China’s Mega-cities  Financial capacity  Technical capacity  Engineering infrastructures  Institutional capacity  Ecological health Mainstreaming Adaptation and DRR into Urban planning Challenges: More aging and wealthier cities in future Disparity in economic and social vulnerability Consolidating Urbanization with large poverty population

Make city more resilient and low carbon

46.6% 6.22 亿人 URBANIZATION IN CHINA 12th FYP: 47.5%  51.5% ， annual avg rate 0.8%= 12 million urban population

USA urbanization 年 年均提高 0.47 个百分点 China facing more challenges than that of developed countries

Make city more resilient and low carbon: Integrate adaptation and mitigation into city strategy Adaptation Reduce the vulnerability: lifeline of city Low carbon adaptation: urban green lands, green power, environmental infrastructures, etc. Synergy between mitigation and adaptation Planning Urban planning: transport, residential settlement Industry planning: resources dependant sectors Spatial planning: population and land using Technology Green building, smart grid, etc Adaptive technologies Management and governance

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