WP220 – Marine ecosystems and fisheries Tony Beeching Cefas

Objectives Use WP110 outputs to examine future impact on fish biology, distribution and availability to fleets Examine impact on ecosystem and fishery productivity Examine economic implications

Task 1 - Review Define current situation Identify appropriate models (biology, ecosystem) Identify best data

Task 2 – Condition models Ensure models are as realistic as possible Use historical data identified in task 1 Note issues projecting models beyond range of biology/ecology seen in the past

Task 3 – Fish stock distribution Impact of climate on distribution –Implications for fishers, economics, etc. Propose use of climate envelopes (Cheung et al.) Produce future distributions (and potentially catch)

Task 4 – Impacts on fish biology Impact of climate on growth/reproduction/mortality Use simulation approaches (e.g. Kell et al.) Examine future sustainability under climate change (species specific)

Task 5 – Impacts on ecosystem Use Ecopath to force existing ecosystem models under climate change –Primary productivity? –Fishing scenarios? Give overview of potential ecosystem impacts

Task 6 - Economics Examine potential impacts –Fish quantities –Fish availability Note issues with future pricing etc. Implications of alternative scenarios

Deliverables Review Conditioned models Scientific papers: –Impacts on fish distribution –Impacts on biology of specific species –Impacts on ecosystem

Links with other WP How we link is a critical consideration Although no topic areas should be avoided, we may need to identify/triage primary links. We have been concerned with inputs to our WPs but equally we need to consider our outputs (WP3). Identify key contact persons (for Cefas – Graham.Pilling)

Issues to consider At what date shall we set the baseline (retrospective ~ to show long term patterns and trends?) (status quo) What is the time series for future projections e.g or 2100? ….or a dec C rise for projection scenarios? What is the spatial scale of outputs from WP1 (e.g. 0.5 deg square) Format of data (file type, size) – implications if need for conversion (processing time and resources) (potential error) How will we share data/informationSpecific outputs