Sensitivity Study of a Coupled Carbon Dioxide Meteorological Modeling System with Case Studies András Zénó Gyöngyösi, Tamás Weidinger, László Haszpra, Zsuzsanna Iványi and Hiroaki Kondo The NIRE ETA model
Overview Short model description i. NIRE ii. ETA Implementation i. NIRE ii. ETA Coupling of NIRE to ETA Sensitivity studies Case studies Conclusion, future works
Model Description ➲ NIRE ● Mesoscale circulation model (simple dynamics) ● Dispersion model ➲ Boussinesq-approximation ➲ Anelastic equations ➲ Terrain following s-coordinate (vrbl. res.) ➲ Staggered (Arakawa) grid ➲ First order turbulent closure (K ~ Richardson #) ● Vertical diff – implicit solver ● Horizontal diff – just for numerical stability ➲ Srfc: Monin-Obuhov; Energy Balance Eq. ➲ Soil: Thermal conductivity eq.
Surface parameterization H2O: passive scalar, srfc ➲ No clouds, relevant in sfc heat balance CO2: ➲ Vegetation (Photosynth.+Res.) for each veg. mosaic => synthesized flux ➲ Anthropogen: ● area srfc (heating and traffic) ● large stacks – plume rise (CONCAWE)
Boundary conditioning; Numerical integration ➲ Lateral bndry ● Flow relaxation zone ➲ Top bndry ● Sponge layer ➲ Initialization ● Dynamical init. – spin-up ➲ Time integration: Leap frog – Forward each 20 th step to adjust numerical mode
Implementation ➲ Surface files ● IGBP landcover landuse database (USGS) ➲ Sensitivity test ● Dynamics ● Superadiabatic stratification ● Strong wind ➲ Basin ● Carpathian bndry: nonlinear interaction topography -- bndry
Model bndry interacts w/ topography – strong nonlinear effects More effective bndry conditions are necessary
Sensitivity Study Mixing layer depth (Convective different cloud amounts Time evolution of CO 2 in the model domain
The “Meteorological driver” ➲ NCEP/ETA model (EMS NWS/NOAA): ● Limited area NWP model ● Primitive hydrostatic eqs – non-hydrost. Option ● Modified terrain following coordinate system ● Eta (modified sigma) ● approx horiz. srfs separatio nof lee flow ● sfc & PBL param. sophisticated
Adaptation “Operational” run for Central Europe ”Operational” run for Central Europe Adaptation of ETA + Budapest Init & bndry conds downloaded from NCEP every morning
Dynamical Test (non-hydrostatic option) ➲ Hydrostatic equations, non-hydrostatic effects parameterized ● Small-scale effect are more non-hydrost. ● Small impact on solutions ● In the standard run non-hydrost. Option not implemented ● DF init. not used
H 500 P sfc The Mass field Pressure falling (approaching system) NH departure ∆h~-.4—1.4 h~5530—5620 9m
The Wind field NH wind stronger more KE generation NH departures associated with topography
Coupling NIRE to ETA Super-adiabatic lapse rate instab Extreme wind speed lat & top bndry Flow relax term changed to sine shape Top sponge layer enlarged Adiabat. adjustment:
A Case study Cold inversion in the Basin 02 February 2006 “Inversion case” Convective boundary layer after the decay of the inversion 06 February 2006 “Convection case”
Effect of a single large stack ● Plume rise (CONCAWE – Briggs, 1968) ● 200 m high ● 280 m C ● 1000 t/day CO 2 emission ● Located in the middle of the domain
Time evolution of temperature InversionConvection
Temperature different time of the day Inversion Convection
Time evolution of CO 2 Inversion Convection
CO 2 different time of the day InversionConvection
12 LST
15 LST
18 LST
22 LST
Conclusion ➲ NIRE is able to provide realistic meteorological conditions in suitable initial and boundary conditions taken from ETA ➲ The modular structure of it makes them suitable for PBL tests ➲ The coupled system is able to calculate concentration for different extreme meteorological conditions
Future works ➲ Introduction of newer parameterization schemes into the CO 2 model – further sensitivity and case studies ➲ Daily coupled system runs for the estimation of annual variation of surface fluxes ➲ Estimation of annual Carbon budget of the Carpatian Basin