The feasibility of avoiding future climate impacts: key results from the AVOID1 and 2 programmes Funded by Jason A. Lowe, Rachel Warren, Nigel Arnell, Simon Buckle, Ajay Gambhir and the AVOID network Further details

Overview of AVOID1 and 2 Supported UK’s international engagement Supported the setting of the UK’s carbon budgets Informed UK’s position at international climate change negotiations Established in 2009 to provide tailored scientific information on feasibility, benefits and side effects of mitigation Synthesises information from a wide range of sources Considered climate science, impacts and socio-economic aspects AVOID2 began in 2014 to provide information along the pathway to Paris and CoP21

AVOID2 approach: Integrated assessment but not just another IAM What are the characteristics of potentially dangerous climate change? How much can mitigation reduce climate change and impacts? How feasible are different amounts of mitigation?

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways The database does not provide uniform sampling of pathways 2020 emissions of 50 GtCO2eq cover a wide range of median warming

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways We have led a post AR5 intercomparison of emission reduction feasibility: TIAM WITCH MESSAGE +GAINS for non-CO2

Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget? Many earth system processes are not routinely included in scenario development, But AR5 did provide some useful information Equilibrium climate sensitivity remains very uncertain

Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Key result 2- How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Most scenarios that limit warming to lower levels have large BECCs contribution

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES Uses 5% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Uses 4% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Uses 18% of land area Excluding GL and ANT

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Estimated 2100 BECCs potential with no CCS limit in HadGEM2ES Uses 5% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Uses 4% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Uses 18% of land area Excluding GL and ANT Achieving 166 GtC over the 21st Century appears to be highly challenging. The most productive areas globally are the tropics. Biophysical cooling associated with deforestation may have benefits to stabilising climate at low levels.

Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation? Water availabilityExposure to river floods Coastal flooding J Roff Crop yieldsOcean acidificationCooling demand

Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation?

Just as important is communicating the results Key stakeholders and funders International influencers Academic community Business Media and the interested public

The AVOID 2 consortium

01/12/2015

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways Emissions in 2020 (GtCO2eq) Emissions in 2050 (GtCO2eq)

Key result 1: Reprocessing the IPCC WG3 database of IAM emission pathways We have led a post AR5 intercomparison of emission reduction feasibility: TIAM WITCH MESSAGE +GAINS for non-CO2

Key result 4 – How much impact can we avoid through mitigation? Uncertainty in global and region impacts remains large Regional variations in the impacts can be calculated but is even more uncertain

Key result 2- How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget?

Key result 3: First look at new results on enhanced CO2 removal Achieving 166 GtC over the 21st Century appears to be highly challenging. The most productive areas globally are the tropics. Biophysical cooling associated with deforestation may have benefits to stabilising climate at low levels. Biophysical effects may also include reduced precipitation and other non-temperature linked negative impacts. Payback time for deforestation

Key result 2: How big is the 2ºC cumulative carbon budget? Many earth system processes are not routinely included in scenario development, although AR5 did provide some useful information