MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Outline Example of Weather Impacting Air traffic –Impacts on worst delay day Ways to reduce delay –Improve forecasts –Aid traffic flow management

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Aviation Delay Problem US Air Traffic Density Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of $8.1M/yr Convection responsible for 40% of delay costs: $840 – 920 M/yr Approximately 40% of thunderstorm delay possibly avoidable ($ M/yr) Thunderstorm Impacts Causes of NAS Delays in 2004 Aviation Weather Delays Other 5% Weather 76% © The COMET Program Volume 14% Equipment 1% Closed Runway 4%

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 FAA Corridor Integrated Weather System Improving Tactical Convective Weather Forecasts for Aviation Precipitation Mosaic # of aircraft CIWS Domain and Air Traffic 0-2 hour Echo Tops Forecast Winter Precipitation Forecast 0-2 hour Precipitation Forecast Growth and Decay Trends Echo Tops Mosaic Plan CIWS capability across CONUS by 2007

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Identified CIWS Benefits in 2003 Intensive benefits analyses in 2003 & 2005 –Annual benefits estimates are from ’03 –Increase expected based on ’05 analyses Improved Arrival Transition Area Management Interfacility Coordination Situational Awareness Routes Open Longer $89M Reduce Workload Proactive Reroutes $37M Relative Frequency of Benefits Categories

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 CIWS Benefits Are Increasing … Comparison of CIWS Product Usage in 2003 and 2005 Keeping Routes Open LongerProactive, Efficient Reroutes Note increased use of Precip Forecast and importance of Echo Tops information Initial use of Echo Tops Forecast in 2005 surpasses use of Precip Forecast in 2003

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 CIWS Benefits Comparisons ARTCCs With and Without CIWS Displays in Areas Much higher benefits at ARTCCs with CIWS displays in TMU and Areas ZMP ARTCC new CIWS ‘user’ in Benefits lagged other ARTCCs with CIWS in TMU and Areas as 2005 was first SWAP season with CIWS and user “burn-in” period was expected For ARTCCs with no CIWS in Areas, significantly more benefits realized at ZBW - Compensated for lack of CIWS in Areas through increased use in TMU - ZBW operational benefits still lagged benefits at ZDC and ZOB (ARTCCs with similar TMU CIWS experience, but CIWS also in Areas) ** Includes most significant CIWS en route delay reduction benefits categories + FAA staffing assistance category CIWS Operational Benefits per ARTCC ** CIWS in Areas NO CIWS in Areas

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Recipe for Bad NAS Delay Day 1. Impact NY TRACON directly 2. Disrupt E-W flow in Corridor 3. Impact DC and Atlanta simultaneously 4. Make the weather impact last for hours 13 July 2005 had all these ingredients! –Worst single day delay in FAA history For 35 OEP pacing airports –1624 delays recorded – 2017 total hours of delay – Average delay of 74 min per flight –Hurricane Dennis remnant in central US –Convective weather along east coast

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Example of Air Traffic Impacts by Weather Worst Delay – day in FAA history – 13 July 2005 CIWS Precipitation CIWS Echo Tops Flights at or above 16,000 Feet Western weather caused by remnant of hurricane Dennis

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 CIWS 1-hr Forecast Performance Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast Decay Failed to Forecast Growth All significant storm elements forecast very well

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 CIWS 2-hr Forecast Performance Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast Decay Failed to Forecast Growth Large storms forecast less well - more growth & decay missed

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Reducing Weather Impact Delays Recognize some delay is unavoidable –Develop model to calculate optimal routing given weather, traffic –Compare “actual” routing to “optimal” to fairly measure delay Improve forecast products –FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is Improving storm growth & decay in 0-2 hr tactical forecasts Developing automated 2-6 hr strategic forecasts –Research results directly improve CIWS products Aid traffic flow planning in complex weather scenarios –Provide common situational awareness –Couple forecasts with decision support tools

MIT Lincoln Laboratory CIWS D. Meyer 10/21/05 Ongoing Research to Improved Forecasts Knowledge of Frontal Forcing Snow Mix Rain 0-2 hr Precipitation Phase Forecast Enhanced Winter ForecastGrowth of New Storms Use of Satellite Growth Evidence CIWS Winter Mode Forecast Cold Front Lake Breeze Front Mountain Clutter