Peak Oil Professor Leonard Rodberg Department of Urban Studies Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Telephone Global Climate Change and Public Policy

US Oil Production and Imports 2004

The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert

It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil

Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production

US Oil Production and Imports 2004

The Paper that Started It All… *Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas **Chief Consultant (General Geology).

World Energy Use by Fuel

Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production

The Decline of New Oil Discoveries

Oil Production Worldwide

The Optimists’ View

Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race according to M. King Hubbert

It’s Getting Warmer

And the Sea Level is Rising

Greenhouse Effect

What are the Greenhouse Gases? Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (C n H m) ) + Oxygen (O 2 )  CO 2 + H 2 O Also Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

Radiative Forcing Components Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit

The Concentration of CO2 is Growing

Impacts Worldwide GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning Signs Fingerprints and Harbingers Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather Sea level rise and coastal flooding Glaciers melting Arctic and Antarctic warming Spreading disease Earlier spring arrival Plant and animal range shifts and population declines Coral reef bleaching Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding Droughts and fires

U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57

Wind Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power. Today: 50,000 MW (1/40) Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association) Wind Electricity

Photovoltaic Power

Electricity Nuclear Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since Credit: Dominion. A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessing Universal rules and international governance Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge. Nuclear Electricity Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

Biofuels

Efficient Use of Electricity lighting motorscogeneration Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:. 25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings Target commercial and multifamily buildings. Efficient Use of Electricity

Efficient Use of Fuel Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon. 2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg. 2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year. Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl Efficient Use of Fuel

Carbon Storage Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins Sleipner project, offshore Norway Carbon Storage Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge: 3500 MtCO 2 /yr 100 x U.S. CO 2 injection rate for EOR A flow of CO 2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

Reforestation and Land Conservation

NYC Energy Profile 1979

Saving Energy in NYC Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980

PlaNYC Mitigation Measures

PlaNYC Wedges

Planning for a Major Hurricane

Both Adaptation and Mitigation: Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some Inevitable Climate Change Protect our city’s vital infrastructure Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation