“Third Wave” of Democracy By Samuel Huntington

IS THE THIRD WAVE OVER? When Huntington wrote his book “The Third Wave” in 1990, the wave was still near its peak. Today, we look at two articles written after the peak of the wave. Samuel Huntington “After Twenty Years: The Future of the Third Wave” 1997. Thomas Carothers “The End of the Transition Paradigm” 2002.

HUNTINTON’S WAVES First long wave of democratization 1828-1926 Years First long wave of democratization 1828-1926 First reverse wave 1922-1942 Second, short wave of democratization 1643-1962 Second reverse wave 1958-1975 Third wave of democratization 1974-

THE FIRST LONG WAVE, 1776-1914 1600s-1900 European Enlightenment Liberalism Constitutional Monarchies and Republics Voting Rights for All? Women Excluded until 20th Century

THE FIRST REVERSE WAVE, 1922-1942 End of WWI Collapse of Tsarist, Ottoman and Austro‐Hungarian Empires and birth of new states (Finland, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, and Baltic States) Economic disruption of the Great Depression Of 17 newly democracies (1910-31), only 4 remained Military coups in Italy (1922), Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Greece (1936). Portugal (1926)Brazil (1930), Argentina (1930), Spain (1939), Japan (early-1930s) Rise of Fascism, ideological and militaristic autocracies

THE SECOND WAVE, 1943-1962 End of WWII saw the defeat of Fascism in Italy and Germany; allies promoted democratic constitutions in Germany, Italy, Japan, Austria, Korea The remaining Colonial powers were shaken and rise of independence movements Although most newly independent states in Africa adopted democratic constitutions, few consolidated Some progressive movements and popular elections in Latin America (Uruguay, Brazil, Costa Rica, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela) Despite some setbacks, the total number of democracies worldwide grew in this period

THE SECOND WAVE Post-WWII Decolonization in Latin America, Asia, Africa Expanded notions of citizenship and civic participation in the developed world Europe – Social Rights, Social Democracy US - Civil Rights Movement

THE THIRD WAVE, 1974+ End of Portuguese dictatorship 1974 In Spain, death of Franco 1975 Wave of democratization in Latin America and Asia in late 1970s In the 1970’s and 80’s the Soviet and Eastern bloc economies came under pressure Under Gorbachev, the Soviet Union loosened its grip on Central and Eastern Europe. In 1989, practically all of the communist regimes in the region fell With the support of the EU, some post‐Communist states successfully consolidated their democracies. But many also remain unreconstructed (Eurasia) or poorly consolidated (Georgia, Ukraine).

A NEW REVERSE WAVE “Democratic recession” since 2000 Not all of the new democracies have consolidated and some have reversed (e.g., Gambia in 1977, Thailand, Fiji, Kenya, Russia) Concerns have also been raised about growing apathy and disaffection in consolidated democracies Only the whole, the latest wave has not come to an end, but shows some signs of weakening and possible reversals.

HUNTINGTON’S PROPOSITIONS No single factor is sufficient to explain the development of democracy Democratization in each country is the result of a combination of causes The combination of causes differs for each wave The causes responsible for the initial regime transition differ from those responsible for democratic consolidation