The Augustine Committee Review of Human Spaceflight Plans Committee Briefing to COMSTAC October 29, 2009 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Purpose of Committee (From OSTP Statement of Task) The purpose of this effort is to develop suitable options for consideration by the Administration regarding a human space flight architecture that would: – Expedite a new U.S. capability to support utilization of the International Space Station – Support missions to the Moon and other destinations beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) – Stimulate commercial space flight capability – Fit within the current budget profile for NASA exploration activities Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Why have a human spaceflight program? Science? human exploration can do phenomenal science, far more than robotic probes – at far higher cost. So you get a LOT of science. BUT: there are other science investments with more science/$$ International relations/national prestige? NO Human space exploration projects the image of the country we want to be International cooperation in space provides important benefits BUT: while the benefits are real and significant, they don’t justify HSF and there are other arenas which could provide similar benefits Many other benefits of HSF, like technology – but again, if that particular benefit were the driver, would be other ways to get it. So … Why?

Why have a human spaceflight program? Science? human exploration can do phenomenal science, far more than robotic probes – at far higher cost. So you get a LOT of science. BUT: there are other science investments with more science/$$ International relations/national prestige? NO Human space exploration projects the image of the country we want to be International cooperation in space provides important benefits BUT: while the benefits are real and significant, they don’t justify HSF and there are other arenas which could provide similar benefits Many other benefits of HSF, like technology – but again, if that particular benefit were the driver, would be other ways to get it. So … Why? “There was consensus among the subgroup that the underlying reason why we do human spaceflight is the extension of human civilization beyond Earth and that this will first occur on Mars Luna is a potentially enabling resource outpost in that process and will serve as a demonstrator of technologies and operational capabilities needed for Martian exploration and eventual permanent presence”

Starting Point ISS Moon Mars Flexible Path High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Starting Point ISS Moon Mars ISS Moon Mars Flexible Path High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Moon Mars ISS Starting Point ISS Moon Mars ISS Moon Mars Flexible Path High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

Moon Mars ISS Starting Point ISS Moon Mars ISS Moon Mars Flexible Path Moon Mars ISS Moon Flexible Path High Level Decision Evolution of the Committee

$ Capsule Booster Lander Surface Systems In space elements MoonFlexible Path Time $ Surface Systems Lander Capsule Booster TimeMoonFlexible Path In space elements $ Capsule Booster Lander Surface Systems In space elements MoonFlexible Path Time Development and Ops Cost Phasing: Lunar vs. Flexible DDT&E Plus Ops

Tanker Technology can be applied in two modes: A single tanker is launched to orbit, autonomously docks with an Earth Departure Stage (EDS), and transfers fuel In a more advanced version, many tankers dock with a depot in orbit and fill it. Then the EDS docks and fuels from the depot. Either mode can be used to top off or completely fill an EDS Advantages: Increased deliver mass to target for give size booster and EDS May allow smaller booster requirements Disadvantages: Additional launches and more complex on orbit operations required Cryogenic fluid management and transfer technology needed In-space refueling: The ability to add fuel to an Earth-departure stage, either from an in-space docking with a tanker or from a depot, is of significant potential benefit to the in-space transportation system beyond LEO. The development of in-space refueling also enables the development of a commercial market for fuel delivery to orbit. In- Space Propellant Storage & Transfer Depot

Commercial Crew Service to LEO We included in several scenarios the development of a commercially provided service for crew launch to Low Earth Orbit Competition open to all commercials, large and small The development of a human-rated, demonstrated high-reliability rocket is probably more challenging than the development of a capsule. NASA should develop a backup of GFE of an human rated variant of an existing high reliability 8-10 mt class launcher (e.g. Atlas V 402) As further insurance, heavy lifters should be developed that are human ratable (but not necessarily human rated), in the event the commercial system fail to appear

The Safety Dance “Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure” M. Twain Limitations and uses of PRA Evolution of PRA and demonstrated reliability Role of infant mortality and flight rate Launch contributions to LOC – Improvements in booster make only small improvements in overall LOC – Any compromise to safety of other elements due to boosters is WRONG trade “The Committee was unconvinced that enough is known about any of the potential high-reliability launcher-plus-capsule systems to distinguish their levels of safety in a meaningful way.”

Launch Vehicle Options Ares I 25 mt Ares V 161 mt + Ares V lite (dual) 143 mt Sidemount mt Jupiter mt or EELV Super Heavy 75mt