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1 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Evaluation Measures and Criteria for Humans Spaceflight Options 12 August 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Evaluation Measures and Criteria for Humans Spaceflight Options 12 August 2009."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee Evaluation Measures and Criteria for Humans Spaceflight Options 12 August 2009

2 2 Defining the Basis for Evaluation Major Drivers for defining the evaluation criteria HSF Commission 2009 Charter and Statement of Task –Expedite a new U.S. capability to support utilization of the International Space Station –Support missions to the Moon and other destinations beyond low Earth orbit –Stimulate commercial space flight capability –Fit within the current budget profile for NASA exploration activities Other Metrics defined by Panel Members Reviewed metrics and figures of merit used in previous studies Space Act of 1958 1991 Synthesis Group 2004 Vision for Space Exploration Significant agreement on metrics and criteria Not all criteria will be weighted equally

3 3 Sustainability Science Knowledge Economic Expansion Technology Innovation Life Cycle Cost Public Engagement Exploration Preparation Schedule and Programmatic Risk Expanding Human Civilization Workforce Impact Safety Global Partnership Benefit to Stakeholders RISKS BUDGET REALITIES Evaluation Challenges

4 4 Exploration Preparation Promotes and enables exploration beyond LEO -2 Exploration is limited to LEO; No significant activity beyond ISS & SSP Supports ISS with the development of capability for beyond LEO 0Limited beyond LEO exploration 1 Provides exploration beyond LEO with ability to grow and evolve 2 Develops Operational Robustness to explore destinations beyond LEO

5 5 Science Knowledge Addresses critical research areas consistent with Decadal survey priorities -2No plan for science research Science research opportunity but is inconsistent with the priorities of the science community 0 Limited Opportunity for science research but no implementation plan 1 Addresses some priorities of the scientific community (astrophysics, planetary and lunar science, solar science and earth science) 2 Significantly addresses many critical priorities of the scientific community

6 6 Technology Innovation Enables technology maturation, new modes of exploration and national leadership in innovation -2Uses current or very near term technologies Uses near term technology with modest investment in maturation and transfer 0Technology maturation required to support exploration 1Provides opportunity for technology innovation 2Provides significant enabling technology innovation

7 7 Expanding Human Civilization Leads to a presence off planet and enables sustained human presence and/or bases -2Does not enable human presence Enables a visit beyond LEO 0 Leads to a presence off planet and supports research for crew effects (i.e. radiation, zero or low-g) 1 Addresses crew – oriented effects to enable sustained human presence off planet 2 Enables sustaining human presence off planet utilizing In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) or enhances protection of the Earth

8 8 Economic Expansion Growing, profitable Industrial Base; Commercial Engagement and US development and production capabilities increase -2 Diminishes technical capability industrial base. No opportunity for commercial participation Weakens industrial base. Limited opportunity for commercial goods and services 0Sustains US industrial base with some new opportunities 1Stimulates investment in new and existing capabilities 2Commercial systems form integral part of the architecture

9 9 Global Partnership Leverages and expands international partnerships (IP) -2Discourages further International Partnership Involvement Disrupts existing International Partnership 0Sustains existing International Partnership 1 Leverages and strengthens International Partnerships (including critical path) 2Expands International Partnerships to potential new partners

10 10 Public Engagement Motivate and Inspire current and future generations; Societal benefits -2Fails to capture /stimulate public interest at all Gains public interest, but, only focuses on LEO Exploration goals 0 Gains public interest and focuses on Beyond LEO Exploration 1 Significant public interest; Motivates STEM increase and includes broad program that directly benefits society 2 Galvanizes broad public interest in science and technology. Engages the public in exploration

11 11 Safety and Mission Success Probability of Loss of Crew (LOC) or Loss of Mission (LOM) -2Significantly Increased risk of LOC or loss of mission Increased risk of LOC 0LOC risk comparable to Shuttle (1/81) 1 Enhanced crew safety consistent with new human rating requirements 2 Significantly enhanced crew safety (10X) and high launch vehicle reliability

12 12 Life Cycle Cost Affordability through 2020; balanced approach given other national needs -2Greatly exceeds the President’s budget Exceeds the President’s budget 0Meets the President’s budget 1Under the President’s budget 2Significantly under the President’s budget

13 13 Schedule and Programmatic Risk Likelihood of delivering robust exploration capability on schedule -2Provides no exploration beyond LEO before 2030’s Provides sosme exploration beyond LEO early 2020’s 0 Delivers capability on a schedule consistent with the POR, Human Lunar Return in 2020 1Delivers robust capability with schedule margin (low risk) 2Delivers robust capability with significant schedule margin

14 14 Programmatic Sustainability Likelihood of keeping the program sold, i.e., by meeting near term, and continuing, visible milestones -2Significant advocacy needed for out year funding Out year funding profile requires advocacy 0Sufficient public and congressional support 1 Plus broad support from industry and external agencies, i.e., DoD 2Plus broad support from International Partners

15 15 Critical Skills Workforce Impact Impact on nations’ critical skills -2Significant loss of critical skills and experience Some loss of critical skills and experience 0Maintains selected critical skills and expertise 1 Attracts and retains highly capable technical workforce and critical expertise 2 Enables strategic realignment of the workforce to ensure availability of critical skills

16 16 Workforce Impact (NASA and Industry) Near term total workforce impact -2> 10% Decrease < 10 % Decrease 0Maintains critical skills and expertise 1< 10% Increase 2> 10% Increase

17 17 Evaluation Measures Summary Evaluation MeasureCriteria Exploration PreparationRobust Growth Beyond LEO Science KnowledgeAligned with Scientific Community Technology InnovationEnable New Modes of Exploration Expanding Human CivilizationSustained Human Presence Economic ExpansionGrowing Profitable Industrial Base Global PartnershipLeverage & Expand Intl Partnerships

18 18 Evaluation Measures Summary (cont) Evaluation MeasureCriteria Public EngagementMotivate and Inspire; Societal Benefit Schedule & Programmatic RiskOperational Flexibility and Robustness Safety and Mission SuccessCrew Safety and Mission Success Programmatic Sustainability Credibility, Stability, Keeping the support Life Cycle CostTarget – President’s Budget Workforce ImpactsStrategic alignment; critical skills Panel to assess proposed options against each measure

19 19 Integrated Options Evaluation (Presented by ED) Metrics Baseline POR ISS Focused Dash Out of LEO Use Shuttle Systems Deep Space Lunar Global Mars First Option 8Option 9 Exploration Preparation Technology Innovation Science Knowledge Expanding Human Civilization Economic Expansion Public Engagement Global Partnership Schedule & Programmatic Risk Life Cycle Cost Programmatic Sustainability Safety and Mission Success Workforce Impact

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