Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 21 September 2005

Norges Bank 2 Prices for crude oil and gasoline in the US Crude oil: USD per barrel; Gasoline: cents per gallon Daily figures. Jan 05 – Sept 05 3-Pos (December) Crude oil (right-hand scale) Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX Spot 1-Pos (October)

Norges Bank 3 USA Consumer Sentiment Index, Monthly figures Source: EcoWin / University of Michigan Mid-month 16/9

Norges Bank 4 Developments in 10-year government bond yields and oil prices Per cent and USD per barrel Germany Norway US Crude oil (right-hand scale) Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 5 CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, Germany, the UK and Japan. Percentage change on same month previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistics US Euro area Japan UK Germany

Norges Bank 6 Consumer prices in the Nordic countries Percentage rise on same month previous year Source: EcoWin / National statistics Norway (CPI-ATE) Sweden (UND1X) Denmark* Sweden (UND1X excl. energy) * CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Finland*

Norges Bank 7 Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 20 Sept 9 Aug Sweden UK

Norges Bank 8 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices. Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 02 – Sept Sept Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 24 Jun (IR 2/05)

Norges Bank 9 Oil futures prices USD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. Jan 01 – Sept 05 Delivery in 6-7 years Delivery in 1 month Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

Norges Bank 10 CPI-ATE Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services 1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/05 (broken line). 12-month rise. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) 1) Norges Bank's projections Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE

Norges Bank 11 Unemployed Number of unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank Registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes

Norges Bank 12 Source: Statistics Norway Statistics Norway's wage index Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent Manufacturing Transport and communications Retail trade Construction industry Commercial services and property management

Norges Bank 13 Sources: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank Consumer confidence indicator Unadjusted figures

Norges Bank 14 Service consumption and airline passengers 4-quarter growth. Per cent Sources: Statistics Norway, Avinor and Norges Bank Airline passengers international departures (right-hand scale) Service consumption excluding shelter services (left-hand scale)

Norges Bank 15 Investment Consumption Private consumption and enterprise sector investment in mainland Norway Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 16 Housing prices from real estate business 12-month rise. Monthly figures. Per cent Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 17 Estimated and actual investment in petroleum activities In billions of NOK Previous yearSame yearFinal figures 2006 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 18 Total debt (C3) and domestic credit (C2) Per cent. 12-month growth Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Households (C2) Domestic credit to non- financial enterprises (C2) Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)

Norges Bank 19 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 8 Aug Sept 2005

Norges Bank 20 Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank, IR 2/05 CPI-ATE Output gap