August 15th, 2013 T-1 Day Nick Kyper Wallops Island, VA HS3 Weather Brief

Current Analysis

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 09UTC August 16 th

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 12UTC August 16 th

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 15UTC August 16 th

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 09UTC August 17 th

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 12UTC August 17 th

Model Forecast Chart: NAM Valid: 15UTC August 17 th

48 Hour ForecastIssued 1500L08/15/2013 SYNOPTIC OUTLOOK: High pressure will center over the Mid-Atlantic today, providing dry and cool weather through tomorrow afternoon. High pressure will shift off the coast tonight as a frontal boundary well to our south begins to move north as warm front tomorrow afternoon. Southerly flow aloft will develop over the region tonight, allowing for an abundance of moisture to overspread the region. A combination of the moisture combined with warm-air advection will overrun the warm front allowing for scattered showers to develop over the region tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Showers will become more widespread Saturday, especially during the afternoon as several upper-level shortwaves interact with the front. An upper-level trough will remain over the eastern US, allowing for unsettled weather to continue into early next week. 48 HR TERMINAL FCST: FRI 05L SCT050 BKN250 P6SM. FRI 11L FEW020 SCT050 BKN250 P6SM. FRI 18L FEW020 BKN050 BKN180 BKN250 P6SM. CHC SCT020 BKN040 BKN070 BKN150 5SM –SHRA BR. SAT 02L SCT020 BKN050 BKN130 P6SM. CHC SCT020 BKN040 BKN070 OVC120 5SM –SHRA BR. SAT 10L SCT020 BKN040 BKN070 BKN130 P6SM. CHC SCT020 BKN035 BKN050 OVC100 5SM –SHRA BR. WIND: FRI 05L NORTHEAST 4 TO 8 KNOTS. FRI 08L NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SAT 08L NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

Item # Risk Level Sub- Level Criteria 1 G Fri 12UTC NE 8-13 kts Exceed Wind Limits for Arrival at 16 AUG 12UTC (15 kt crosswind, 30 kt headwind, 25 kt tailwind) 2 G Approach on RWY 04 3 G Approach on RWY 22 4 G Approach on RWY 28 5 G Approach on RWY 10 (backup only) 6 G Fri 13UTC NE 8-13 kts Exceed Wind Limits for Late Return To Base (within 1 hour after scheduled arrival) at 16 AUG 13UTC (15 kt crosswind, 30 kt headwind, 25 kt tailwind) 7 G Approach on RWY 04 8 G Approach on RWY 22 9 G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY 10 (backup only) 11 G Sat 12UTC NE kts G17 kts Exceed Wind Limits for Backup Return To Base at date 17 AUG 12UTC (15 kt crosswind, 30 kt headwind, 25 kt tailwind) 12 G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY 10 (backup only) Green: 0-15% No-Go Likely Yellow: 16-40% No-Go Likely Orange: 41-70% No-Go Likely Red: % No-Go Likely

Item #Risk Level Sub- Level Criteria 16 G Sat 12UTC NE kts G17 kts Exceed Wind Limits between Late Return To Base (within 1 hour after scheduled arrival) and Backup Return at date: 16 AUG 13UTC- 17 AUG 12UTC (15 kt crosswind, 30 kt headwind, 25 kt tailwind) 17 G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY G Approach on RWY 10 (backup only) 21 G Fri 12UTC SCT050 BKN250 P6SM Exceed Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) for Arrival at date: 16 AUG 12UTC 22 G 3 Statute Miles (SM) Visibility 23 G 1000-ft Ceiling 24 G Maintain Distance from Clouds (500-ft below, 1000-ft above, 2000-ft horizontal) 25 O Sat 12UTC CHC SCT020 BKN040 BKN070 OVC120 5SM -SHRA BR Exceed Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) for Backup Return to Base at date: 17 AUG 12UTC 26 G 3 Statute Miles (SM) Visibility 27 G 1000-ft Ceiling 28 O Maintain Distance from Clouds (500-ft below, 1000-ft above, 2000-ft horizontal) Green: 0-15% No-Go Likely Yellow: 16-40% No-Go Likely Orange: 41-70% No-Go Likely Red: % No-Go Likely

Item #Risk LevelSub-LevelCriteria 29 O Sat 12UTC CHC SCT020 BKN040 BKN070 OVC120 5SM -SHRA BR Exceed Visual Meteorological Conditions (VMC) between Arrival and Backup return at date: 16 AUG 12UTC – 17 AUG 12UTC 30 G 3 Statute Miles (SM) Visibility 31 G 1000-ft Ceiling 32 O Maintain Distance from Clouds (500-ft below, 1000-ft above, 2000-ft horizontal) 33 G Lightning in op area for Arrival at date: 16 AUG 12UTC 34 G Precipitation in op area for Arrival at date: 16 AUG 12UTC 35 G Lightning in op area for Backup Return To Base at date: 17 AUG 12UTC 36 Y Precipitation in op area for Backup Return To Base at date: 17 AUG 12UTC 37 G Lightning in op area between Arrival and Backup return at date: 16 AUG 12UTC – 17 AUG 12UTC 38 Y Precipitation in op area between Arrival and Backup return at date: 16 AUG 12UTC - 17 AUG 12UTC 39 Y Clouds/Winds Key West, FL (Weather associated with risk level) 40 Y Clouds/TSRA KSC (Weather associated with risk level) 41 Y TSRA Mayport, FL (Weather associated with risk level) 42 O Clouds/TSRA Beaufort, SC (Weather associated with risk level) 43 O Clouds/TSRA Tyndall, FL (Weather associated with risk level) 44 R Clouds/Winds Cherry Point, NC (Weather associated with risk level) 45 G Pax River, VA (Weather associated with risk level) Green: 0-15% No-Go Likely Yellow: 16-40% No-Go Likely Orange: 41-70% No-Go Likely Red: % No-Go Likely

7 DAY FORECAST High pressure will center over the Mid-Atlantic today, providing dry and cool weather through tomorrow afternoon. High pressure will shift off the coast tonight as a frontal boundary well to our south begins to move north as warm front tomorrow afternoon. Southerly flow aloft will develop over the region tonight, allowing for an abundance of moisture to overspread the region. A combination of the moisture combined with warm-air advection will overrun the warm front allowing for scattered showers to develop over the region tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Showers will become more widespread Saturday, especially during the afternoon as several upper-level shortwaves interact with the front. An upper-level trough will remain over the eastern US, allowing for unsettled weather to continue into early next week.