Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality WRAP Technical Analysis Forum Technical Support for the States and Tribes A Utah Perspective February 6, 2007 Las Vegas, NV Patrick Barickman

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality 1.Utah air quality and modeling issues Current and future issues throughout the state 2.WRAP technical support ** Modeling and data sharing capabilities with relevance to other state/tribal air quality needs 3.Potential for collaboration ** Assume that other states will face a similar variety of issues How can WRAP adapt, or enhance, technical services to meet these needs in the future? ** One state’s perspective: These are starting points for discussion Overview

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Technical Issues PM2.5 NAAQS challenge is the 24-hour standard Under winter inversion conditiions, > 80% PM2.5 is secondary ammonium nitrate New standard simply increases the number of counties likely to be in nonattainment May be other areas of the state as well

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Technical Issues Ozone Currently all counties meet the 8-hr standard However, Wasatch Front counties very close to violation If new standard of 70 ppb is set, as with PM2.5, the number of counties likely to be in nonattainment increases

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Other Utah Technical Issues Mercury This is likely to be a long term issue that will take considerable resources because of its complexity Oil and Gas Large increase in activity Nearly all development in “Indian Country” – State has very limited role in regulation – EPA and Tribe have jurisdiction

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality WRAP Technical Support Capabilities 36 kilometer modeling Air quality – CMAQ, CAMx and Calpuff Emissions – SMOKE Both systems highly refined after 6 years of development Fire and dust inventory refinement Multitude of tools for visibility analysis Source apportionment Glidepath projections TSS New system with good developmental base Current focus Some data access Mostly targeted analytical products for 308 SIP visibility issues

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Future Support From WRAP To The States and Tribes Short Term Horizon – Jan Continued support for visibility SIPS Apportionment analysis Modeling – Not visibility related Intermountain West – oil & gas/rural ozone Reprocess/analyze SMOKE and CMAQ results for ozone Create 1 st draft analysis for effects of growth in oil & gas with 2018 CMAQ results Winter inversion 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS Big problem along the Wasatch Front, Boise and possibly Reno as well Ozone, ozone precursor transport, refine biogenics estimates, etc. TSS – Begin development of support products for issues other than visibility

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Future Support From WRAP To The States and Tribes Long Term Horizon – 2 Years + Modeling Support for higher resolution modeling domains Air quality issues already being addressed by the states point to an increasing need for sub-regional analyses Ability to import updated and locally refined inventories Ability to export WRAP inventories to fill gaps for other modeling studies Look for opportunities to collaborate with states/tribes on individual technical analyses Inventory improvement General technical support

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Future Support From WRAP To The States and Tribes Long Term Horizon – 2 Years + Technical Support TSS a flexible foundation to distribute information now in place Original design goals: Discover information in response to need Link to data through description Provide direct access to remote data for analytical use Access to intermediate data sets, rather than final analytical products will become increasingly important “Intermediate” Examples: SMOKE input/output sector-specific inventory ( area, nonroad, etc.) temporal profiles CMAQ output – pollutant specific, layer specific Flexible tools to extract the data Spatial and temporal subsets

Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Utah Department of Environmental Quality Division of Air Quality Conclusions In Addition To Regional Haze, States Face A Variety Of Air Quality Problems Some will be locally oriented such as exceeding the 24-hour PM standard along the Wasatch Front Others will cross state boundaries such as oil and gas, ozone, and wind blown dust WRAP Has Built An Impressive Modeling And Technical Support Capability Modeling assistance would likely be welcomed by the Intermountain states to assess impacts from oil and gas development Investment in continued development of the TSS would be small compared to the potential savings for states and tribes if the TSS can be used as a resource for local and regional modeling efforts