US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH.

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Presentation transcript:

US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Mark V. Lomanno President SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Total United States Occupancy and ADR Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004 Source: STR

Total United States Estimated Revenue and Profitability Years 1993 – 2003E Source: Smith Travel Research

Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004 Source: STR

Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Monthly Year-Over-Year 2000 – March 2004 Source: STR

* 2,648,200 – annualized daily rooms sold * Off 15,000 daily - from peak * Peak demand – 1st Quarter 2001 * New Demand High Reached in Q Current Lodging Demand

Total United States Occupancy / ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004 Source: STR

Total United States Occupancy Percent Change Jan 2000 – March 2004 Source: STR

Total United States Room Rate Percent Change Jan 2000 – March 2004 Source: STR

ADR % change 2003 vs 2002

Total United States Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Source: STR

Total United States Daily Occupancy* * Excluding Sunday

Total U.S. Average Daily Lodging Demand in Millions

Total U.S. Average Daily Room Revenue in Millions

STR Chain Scales Selected chains from each segment Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont Upper Upscale – Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton Upscale – Radisson, Courtyard, Crowne Plaza Mid with F&B – Holiday Inn, Ramada, Best Western Mid no F&B – Hampton Inn, Country Inns & Suites, HI Express Economy – Motel 6, Red Roof, Days Inn

Supply Percent Change by Chain Scale Source: STR

Demand Percent Change by Chain Scale Source: STR

Occupancy Percent Change by Chain Scale Source: STR

ADR Percent Change by Chain Scale Source: STR

RevPAR Percent Change by Chain Scale Source: STR

STR Destination Resorts - Definitions -337 Properties in the Continental US and Hawaii -12.6% of all rooms are associated with Walt Disney Resorts Breakout by Chain Scale:

Destination Hotels In The US

Resorts - Destination Key Indicators (Percent Change) Twelve Month Ending February Source: STR

Resorts - Destination Key Indicators Twelve Month Ending February Source: STR

Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons) Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004 Source: STR

Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons) Occupancy Levels Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004 Source: STR

Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons) Occupancy Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004 Source: STR

Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons) ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004 Source: STR

Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons) RevPAR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004 Source: STR

Performance Since The Respective Peak RevPAR Month Source: STR

Total U.S. Estimated Lost Room Revenue 3 rd Party Intermediaries In Millions Source: STR

Total U.S. Estimated ADR Change Impact of 3 rd Party Intermediaries Source: STR

Total United States In Construction – Rooms in Thousands Source: STR, PPR, Dodge

Total United States Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands December 2003 Source: STR, PPR, Dodge

Total Pipeline Under Construction By Scale Luxury Upper Up Upscale Mid w/F&B Mid w/out F&B Economy Independent

Total United States Active Development Pipeline - Rooms Change From Last Year Dec 2003 Dec 2002 Change % Chg In Construction 70,818 85,463 (14,645) -17.1% Final Planning 16,446 25,253 (8,807) -34.9% Planning 185, ,260 (29,081) -13.6% In Pre-Planning 138, ,852 7, % Total Development 410,508455,828 (45,320) -9.9% Source: STR, PPR, Dodge

STR/PPR/FW Dodge Pipeline Historic Attrition Rates Source: STR

U.S. Economic Outlook Blue Chip Economic Indicators 2003P2004F2005F Real GDP+3.1%+4.6%+3.7% CPI+2.3%+1.7%+2.1% Corporate Profits +16.8% +15.2%+9.2% Disp Personal Income+2.6%+4.2%+3.4% Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.7% 5.4%

Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 1998 – 2004P Source: STR

Total United States Occupancy Percent 1998 – 2004P Source: STR

Total United States ADR Percent Change 1998 – 2004P Source: STR

Total United States Average Daily Rate 1998 – 2004P Source: STR

Total United States RevPAR Percent Change 1998 – 2004P Source: STR

* Occupancy Rising * Demand Hits Record Levels * Economy Rebounding – Return of the King U.S. Lodging Outlook * Supply Growth Remains Stable * Long Term Optimism Source: STR * Regain Control over Room Rates