Interreg IIIB Measure 3: Co-operation in the field of natural risks METEORISK - An Alpine wide project to enhance collaboration between weather services

Folie 2 John Kenneth Galbraith: convential wisdom  (The Affluent Society 1958)  “We associate truth with convenience, with what most closely accords with self-interest and personal well-being or promises best to avoid awkward effort or unwelcome dislocation of life. We also find highly acceptable what contributes most to self- esteem.”  Economic and social behavior, are complex, and to comprehend their character is mentally tiring. Therefore we adhere, as through to a raft, to those ideas which represent our understanding.”

Folie 3 convential wisdom – weather risks? Basis for a risk analysis: which groups are familiar with these risks: Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves....  tourists  local population  professionals (mountain guides, civil protection)

Folie 4 convential wisdom – weather risks?  risk analysis  which groups are familiar with these risks:  Thunderstorms / floodings / storms / heat waves  tourists  local population  professionals (mountain guides, civil protection) very extreme events often surprise all groups!

Folie 5 What and how should warnings be?  Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned  Reactions to warnings are not appropriate

Folie 6 What and how should warnings be?  Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned  distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps  false alarm rate too high  unclear systems (danger levels)  Reactions to warnings are not appropriate

Folie 7 What and how should warnings be?  Warnings often fail to reach the people concerned  unclear systems (services involved, danger levels)  false alarm rate too high  distribution too low due to technical & organisational handicaps  Reactions to warnings are not appropriate  no emotional impact  no clear advice  no „know how“ about the consequences of extreme situations

Folie 8 What and how should warnings be?

Folie 9 Is everybody neutral?  False alarm rate & probability of detection (Haechler 2003) POD 1 FAR 1 x x x (now) (future)

Folie 10 Is everybody neutral?  False alarm rate & probability of detection POD 1 FAR 1 x x x (now) (future) XXX (media, other services)

Folie 11 Why and how should Weather services cooperate?  Fractioned producers / users in Europe and the Alps  unproportional high number of user live in boarder aereas and hear warnings from neighbouring services  Coordinated warnings reduce the FAR and increase the POD  Commonly used warning systems draw more public attention  Communities in certain areas (like the Alps) develop strong common sense about natural dangers (conventional wisdom)

Folie 12 Is language a problem?  Yes! e.g.  12 words in order of arousal strength (Wolgater and Silver 95)  Note  Notice  Prevent  Alert  Alarm  Harmful  Warning  Urgent  Severe  Poison  Fatal  Deadly

Folie 13 What and how should warnings be?  Suggestions:  danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)

Folie 14 What and how should warnings be?  Suggestions:  danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)  danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)

Folie 15 What and how should warnings be?  Suggestions:  danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)  danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)  distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities

Folie 16 What and how should warnings be?  Suggestions:  danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)  danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)  distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities  parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning

Folie 17 What and how should warnings be?  Suggestions:  danger levels as uniform as possible (Alpine, EU wide)  danger levels damage orientated (earthquake scales)  distribution responding to customer preferences and possibilities  parallel to the warnings structured PR work and offers for learning  clear interfaces with other services in case of indirect meteorological dangers

Folie 18 What could METEORISK contribute? Homogenisation of forecasting work (warning levels etc.) Seminars and real time exchange of forecaster Know How Densification of observation network Common interpretation of model output Improved information of civil protection authorities Improved information of the public

Folie 19 Forecasting extreme weather  Severe weather phenomena in e.g. 24h Weather service Observations Forecasts Civ. prot. / other services authorities / media recommendations Society / / Behaviour

Folie 20 coping with extreme weather  Severe weather phenomena present Weather service Observations Forecasts Society Damages / Behaviour Civ. prot. / other services authorities / media recommendations

Folie 21 Standardisation of alarm levels Area related treshholds (e.g. wind in cities) How often / extreme? DamageWhat to do? green - - -no danger yellow > 60 km/h> 10 per yearexposed objects be alert orange > 80 km/h2-10 per yearfrequent damages be very alert red >100 km/hless or 1 per year large scale damages follow the advice of authorities

Folie 22 Common observational network

Folie 23 Visualisation software

Folie 24 Exchange of CERAD - external radar data

Folie 25 forecasters discussion forum

Folie 26 forecasters discussion forum

Folie 27 Comparison of model behaviour ( P. Bertolotto)

Folie 28 GIS tool  SOLUTION 1 SOLUTION 2 SOLUTION 3 METEORISK

Folie 29 GIS tool 

Folie 30 Statistical tool Rain: ~2378 Snow: ~1643 Shortrain: ~ 420

Folie 31 Statistical tool

Folie 32 Statistical tool 1 day period

Folie 33 Statistical tool 1 day period 15 day period

Folie 34 Homogenisation of forecasting work

Folie 35 Internal – external communication Questions / problems: How can individually structured weather services be coordinated? How can user requirements be integrated? (civil prot. – media – public) PR work is necessary inside and outside the net warnings (alert levels) have to be clear and concise enough

Folie 36 Internal – external communication was it all worth it? The enemy of conventional wisdom is not ideas, but the march of events (K. Galbraith 1958)

Folie 37 Internal – external communication Answers METEORISK brought more attention to individual weather services and the meteorological community links to NMS proved to be succesful homogenized individual informations for different user groups were feasible

Folie 38 Resume

Folie 39 Resume make best use of all the data!