Plan for Today: Thinking about Theory 1.What is theory? 2.Is theory possible in IR? 3.Why is it important? 4.How can we distinguish among theories?

What is theory?  Most people think of “a theory” as developed by “scientific method” 1.Observe and describe apparent pattern or phenomenon. 2.Formulate hypothesis to test on set of cases. 3.Test hypothesis by predicting what will happen in additional cases. 4.Revise hypothesis as necessary if proven wrong.

Inductive vs. deductive reasoning  Inductive: Moving from specific empirical observations to general hypotheses. Sometimes called “bottom-up” theorizing.  Deductive: Moving from general hypotheses to testing them on specific observations. Sometimes called “top-down” theorizing.  In reality, most theory development combines both processes.

“A Theory”  In sciences, a set of multiple hypotheses that have been widely tested and confirmed by evidence from test cases.  Typically includes explanatory logic for why phenomenon exists, how it operates in detail.

Positivism in social sciences  Scientific method at core.  There is a discoverable reality out there, which follows certain patterns.  Patterns can be discovered through rigorously designed scientific inquiry.  State testable and falsifiable hypotheses.

Can we create real theories of international relations?  People and societies are extremely complex. Noam Chomsky’s doubts

Theory development in social sciences not like natural sciences.  Generally can’t conduct experiments.  Generally have to examine events after they have occurred.  Very difficult to “control” for variables you don’t want to examine.

There are different kinds of theory in IR  One type is explanatory theory -- the scientific sort just described. Describes patterns and relationships among certain variables arranged in certain ways.  Variable: a measurable factor in a relationship among factors – it “varies.”

There are different kinds of theory in IR  Another type is critical theory – studies the very way we construct theories and what theoretical approaches cause us to see and not see.  Examines how theory is constitutive of reality.

There are different kinds of theory in IR  Related rise in popularity of postmodernist thought There is no objective reality; all depends on perception. Theoretical generalizations do violence to diversity of real life.

There are different kinds of theory in IR  In reality, we need both kinds of theory – constructing hypotheses and challenging their biases and distortions – in order to advance knowledge and understanding.

Why is it important to understand theory? 1.It’s impossible to make sense of the world without looking through some organizing structure or lens (Walt).  We all do it, whether consciously or not.

Why is it important to understand theory? 2.Often policy debates are actually disagreements over fundamental assumptions about the international system. (Walt)  E.g. National Missile Defense (NMD) plans in US.  E.g. Peacekeeping and foreign aid.

Ways to distinguish theories from one another: 1.Subject matter of concern (ONTOLOGY). 1.Who are the actors and what are the phenomena included? What exists in the world of this theory?

Ways to distinguish theories from one another: 2.Methodology. 1.Inductive or deductive? 1.Neorealists, neoliberals, classical Marxists tend to be more deductive; constructivists more historical and inductive.

Ways to distinguish theories from one another: 2.Methodology. 2.Level of analysis. 1.Waltz’s 3 possible levels of analysis: 1.MAN: human nature, individual leaders. 2.STATE: domestic politics, political culture. 3.SYSTEM: the nature of the international system itself.