Raymond W. Stone Stone & McCarthy Research Associates Presentation: University of Richmond November 19, 2004 Topics Relating to Employment Statistics.

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Presentation transcript:

Raymond W. Stone Stone & McCarthy Research Associates Presentation: University of Richmond November 19, 2004 Topics Relating to Employment Statistics

Household Survey vs Establishment Survey

Definitional Differences Between Surveys Household Survey: Self-Employment Household Workers Doesn’t Count Multiple Jobs Holders Subject to Population Adjustments

Sample Differences Household Survey Captures responses from roundly 60,000 households each month Establishment Survey Based on a sample of roundly 390,000 establishments Accounts for about 37% of all employment

Adjusted Household Series vs Establishment

Some Explanations Accounting For Divergence Undercounting of Self Employment Changes in Turnover Rates Role of Illegal Immigrants

Basics of Payroll Estimates Inferences From Sample Birth/Death Estimate Seasonal Adjustment

How Accurate Have the Payroll Estimates Been? Yardstick of success in estimating payrolls is the size of the annual benchmark revision

How About The Accuracy of the Monthly Payroll Estimates

Do the Monthly Seasonally Adjusted E Estimates Suffer Biases?