Counterfactual Conditionals and False Belief Eva Rafetseder, Christine Hofer & Josef Perner

2 Guiding Questions 1. Under which circumstances can we conclude that children are able to reason counterfactually? 2. Based on the drawn conclusion, does there exist a connection between counterfactual reasoning and false belief? 2

Typical Counterfactual Task Story: Carol comes home and she doesn‘t take her shoes off. She makes the floor all dirty with her shoes. Test: Counterfactual question: „If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be dirty or clean?“ ! Children are able to give the correct answer „clean“ as soon as they understand that the consequence has to differ from reality (= counter to fact). 3 Harris et al. (1996)

Results 4 Harris et al. (1996) Performance differs from chance for both age groups: correct correct D(N = 13) = 0.40, p<.01 D(N = 13) = 0.53, p<.01

Consider! Carol didn‘t take her muddy shoes off and walked over the clean floor. The floor is all dirty. Counterfactual (subjunctive Question) If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be clean or dirty? [clean] Hypothetical (indicative Question) If Carol takes her shoes off, is the floor clean or dirty? [clean] same (correct) answer with and without counterfactual reasoning(!) 5

Needed Distinction Counterfactual reasoning -Combines assumptions with facts -Subjunctive -Example: Somebody walked with dirty shoes on the clean floor. IF this person had taken the dirty shoes off THEN the floor would have stayed clean. 6 Hypothetical reasoning -Reasoning with assumptions „counter to fact“ -Indicative -Example: IF (whenever) somebody takes the dirty shoes off THEN the floor is (tends to be) clean. Reasoning brought to bear by children (??) We should use tasks in which counterfactual and hypothetical reasoning give different answers to a counterfactual question in order to avoid false positives! Reasoning asked for by experimenter (!!)

Developmental Test Simple VersionComplex Version Harris et al. (1996)Schwitalla (2010) Carol doesn‘t take her shoes off. She makes the floor all dirty with her shoes. Carol and John don‘t take their shoes off. They make the floor all dirty with their shoes. „If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be dirty or clean?“ „Show me: How would the floor look?“ [clean] [dirty] 7

Results 8 Schwitalla (2010) t(60) = 7.27, p <.001

Results 9 % of 7;8 - 10;8 year olds% of 5;0 – 6;1 year olds simple complex all four correct more simple correct 1 cf / 1fb correct Schwitalla (2010)

Results 10 complex simple Schwitalla (2010) % of 7;8 - 10;8 year olds

… and with a different scenario? 11

Developmental Test mother puts sweets bottom shelf top shelfboy‘s room girl‘s room boy comes girl comes OR too short 1 st Transformation 2 nd Transformation Pilz (2005) 12

Today mother puts sweets into the top box. Memory 1: Where are the sweets now? Future Hypothetical Event What will happen with the sweets, when the boy comes looking for sweets? Where will the sweets be? [boy´s room] Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top box and takes them to his room! Memory 2: Where are the sweets now? Counterfactual Event But what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [top shelf] ♂ ♀ too short TASK 13

RESULTS Rafetseder et al (2010)

And now? A typical false belief task, e.g. the Maxi task, can be solved by 4 year olds… 15

Story: Peter – a firefighter – feels seek and goes to bed. Sally – his wife – goes to the drug store to get some medicine. While Sally is away, the sirens sound: fire in the post office. Peter rushes to the post office to help put out the fire. Test: Counterfactual question: „If there had been no fire, where would Peter be?“ False belief question: „Where does Sally think, Peter is?“ Participants: n = 28; 3;11 – 4;10 Counterfactual Reasoning and False Belief 16 Riggs et al. (1998)

Results r = 0.86, p < all four correct more cf correct none correct Riggs et al. (1998) 1 cf / 1fb correct False belief Counterfactual

Consider! The counterfactual question of the firefighter task can be solved with „counter to fact“ assumptions. Any child who understands that the counterfactual question asks a consequence that is different from reality might answer with „home“ – the only other possible answer in the story. 18

If there are two other possibilities… χ 2 (N = 133) = 33.6, p <.001) Young children can reason hypothetically with counter- to-fact assumptions but no evidence of counterfactual reasoning. 19 Rafetseder & Perner (2010) 2 possibilities1 possibility

Open Question If we use our „difficult“ CF-scenario and add an FB- question, will the FB-question still be as or more difficult than the CF-question? 20

Developmental Test mother puts sweets bottom shelf top shelfboy‘s room girl‘s room boy comes girl comes OR too short 1 st Transformation 2 nd Transformation Pilz (2005) 21

Today mother puts sweets into the bottom box. Look, the girl comes along looking for sweets. She finds them in the bottom box and takes them to her room! She is wearing boy‘s jacket. Mother thinks it was the boy. Counterfactual Question: But what, if not the girl but the boy had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [boy’s room] False belief question: Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [boy’s room] ♂ ♀ Simple Condition 22

Today mother puts sweets into the top box. Look, the boy comes along looking for sweets. He finds them in the top box and takes them to his room! He ducks when he sneaks back to his room. Mother thinks it was the little girl. Counterfactual Question: But what, if not the boy but the small girl had come along looking for sweets. Where would the sweets be? [top shelf] False belief question: – „Where does the mother think that the sweets are? [top shelf] ♂ ♀ too short Complex Condition 23

Simple vs. Complex Condition Complex Condition Setup: Sweets are on top shelf and boy takes them to his room. Hypothetical reasoning If little girl comes then, sweets go to her room. [girl‘s room] Counterfactual reasoning Sweets were on top shelf. If little girl had come, they would have stayed there. [top shelf] 24 Simple Condition Setup: Sweets are on bottom shelf and girl takes them to her room. Hypothetical reasoning If boy comes then, sweets go to his room. [boy‘s room] Counterfactual reasoning Sweets were on bottom shelf. If boy had come, they would have gone to his room. [boy‘s room]  =

Results 25 Before partialling age out: Simple: r = 0.48, p< Complex: r = 0.58, p< After partialling age out: Simple: r = 0.48, p< Complex: r = 0.49, p< Hofer (2010)

Results 26 % of 9;3 – 11;0 year olds % of 7;0 – 8;10 year olds % of 12;4 – 14;10 year olds % of adults complex fb complex cf

How are cf and fb connected? 27 Simple Condition Setup: Sweets are on bottom shelf and girl takes them to her room. She is wearing boy‘s jacket. False belief of the mother: that it is the boy Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact) If boy comes then, sweets go to his room. [boy‘s room] Counterfactual reasoning If boy had come, sweets would have gone to his room. [boy‘s room]

How are cf and fb connected? 28 Complex Condition Setup: Sweets are on top shelf and boy takes them to his room. He ducks when he sneaks back to his room. False belief of the mother: that it is the girl Hypothetical reasoning (counter to fact) If girl comes then, sweets go to her room. [girl ‘s room] Counterfactual reasoning If girl had come, sweets would have stayed on top shelf. [top shelf]

Conclusion Complex Condition -How does the world look from the perspective of the other person and what can one conclude from that? Counterfactual reasoning 29 Simple Condition -How does the world look from the perspective of another person? Counter to fact reasoning

Thanks to Christine Hofer Andy Fugard Josef Perner Louisa Hacking Sabrina Ecker Children Maria Schwitalla