1. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 1 Counterfactual Conditionals and False Belief Eva Rafetseder Josef Perner

2. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 2 PART II Counterfactual and Belief-Desire Reasoning Josef Perner

3. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 3 Structure of the presentation PART I (Rafetseder) –Development of Conditional Reasoning Reasoning with premises counter to fact3 – 4 years Counterfactual Reasoning9 – 13 years –False belief reasoning depends on conditional reasoning PART II –Implications for Folk Psychology (“Theory of Mind”) Theory theory Simulation Teleology in perspective

4. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 4 Implications for theory of mind

5. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 5 False belief task Maxi puts his book in the cupboard Then he leaves to play in the garden After that, Mum comes to tidy up the room Mum takes the book out of the cupboard, and puts it in the bookshelf Then she leaves to do some work in the kitchen. Now, Maxi returns looking for his book Where will he look first for his book? Test question (Wimmer & Perner, 1983)

6. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 6 Stages 1) World (observed behaviour)  mind –Maxi wasn‘t there when book was moved  Maxi thinks book is still in old place 2) Mind  mind –mother thinks it was the little girl  mother thinks she couldn‘t reach sweets  mother thinks sweets still on top shelf 3) Mind  world (action) –Max wants the book & Max thinks book in cupboard & Max knows to get the book is to go where it is – (practical inference)  Maxi will go to the cupboard (where he thinks it is).

7. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 7 Ways into the mind Theory: –knowledge of what leads to which mental state, and action. Simulation: –Imagining a situation elicits „similar“ mental states and action tendencies as being in that situation  imagine being in other‘s situation and read off (introspection) resulting states. Teleology (in perspective): –If the situation were as other believes it to be, then what would be the action to take? (Counterfactual Reasoning).

8. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 8 Plausibility: World  Mind theory: possible –Maxi wasn‘t there when book was moved  Maxi thinks book is still in old place simulation: possible –Imagine: putting book in cupboard, going out, coming back  look for book in cupboard. –problem of what to include in imagination. teleology = theory

9. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 9 Plausibility: Mind  Mind  Action Theory: implausible –requires knowledge about minds and their specific contents: –People who think that a small girl came to look for sweets, and who know she cannot reach to top shelf, will think that the sweets will stay there.  (modular) theory not tenable Simulation: possible –pretend-thinking that girl, who...  pretend-thinking that the sweets will stay on top shelves –attribute this pretend thought to mother as her real thought Teleology: more plausible –counterfactually for ourselves (simulative element): if the girl, who cannot reach, had come... –someone who thinks that the girl has come will draw the same inferences (theory element) Our finding that belief attribution follows own inference ability supports this approach.

10. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 10 Thank you for your patience!

11. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 11

12. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 12 Our guiding Question When can we conclude that children are able to reason counterfactually?

13. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 13 The Answer When children give correct answers to counterfactual questions and......could not arrive at this answer by another kind of reasoning.  check on different kinds of reasoning with help of a research example.

14. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 14 Counterfactual Reasoning in 3-year olds (Harris et al 1986) Carol didn‘t take her muddy shoes off and walked over the sparkling clean floor. The floor is all dirty If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be clean or dirty?  [clean] Counterfactual (subjunctive) Question correct answer  they can reason counterfactually (??) Distinction: Reasoning with assumptions counter-to-fact Counterfactual reasoning

15. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 15 Counterfactual Reasoning

16. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 16 Counterfactual Question Hypothetical Reasoning Consider! If Carol has taken her shoes off, is the floor clean or dirty?  [clean] Hypothetical (indicative) Question same (correct) answer without reasoning counterfactually (!)

17. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 17 Objectives  Avoid False positives  using tasks in which counterfactual and hypothetical reasoning give different answers to a CF-question.

18. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 18 Developmental Test ( Maria Schwitalla 2010) Basic (hypothetical): –If Carol has taken her shoes off, is the floor then clean or dirty?  [clean] Counterfactual (Harris et al 1986) –Carol walked with her muddy shoes over the sparkling clean floor. The floor is all dirty –If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be clean or dirty?  [clean] Semifactual (Schwitalla 2010) –Carol & John walked with their muddy shoes over the sparkling clean floor. The floor is all dirty –If Carol had taken her shoes off, would the floor be clean or dirty?  [dirty] Show me: How would the floor look?

19. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 19 Data Schwitalla 5 years 10 years 5 years adults

20. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 20 No premature objections, please! Comparabel results with quite different set up

21. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 21 A toy world : Pilz 2005 Thesis Start Event-1 Mid StateEvent-2 End State cookiescookiescookiescookies placedstored intransferredin Mother puts cookies top shelf bottom shelf girl's room boy's room tall girl small boy

22. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 22 Exp 1 – 3: Rafetseder Cristi-Vargas & Perner 2010 Exp 4: Rafetseder & Perner (unpubl. data)

23. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 23 False Belief

24. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 24 Counterfactual Reasoning & False belief

25. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 25 CFR and FB (Riggs et al 1998) Story: –Peter the fire fighter feels sick and goes to bed –His wife goes to the drug store to fetch some medicine –While his wife is out the sirens sound: Fire in the school. –Peter rushes to the school despite being sick. CF-Q: Where would Peter be if there had been no fire? FB-Q: Where does his wife think Peter is? Results: Around 4 years children manage both questions CF somewhat easier than FB Follow up: Perner Sprung & Steinkogler (2004) CF can be made easier but not FB  Reasoning with assumptions counter to fact is a precondition for attributing FB

26. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 26 Question If we use our „difficult“ CF-scenario and add an FB-question Will the FB-question still be as or more difficult than the CF-question?

27. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 27 Tough Condition 1: CFR  Hypothetical Sweets are on the top shelf – boy comes and takes them. He ducks when he sneaks back to his room Mother thinks it was the little girl False belief question: –„Where does the mother think that the sweets are? Counterfactual Question: –„What if not the tall boy but the little girl had come looking for sweets, where would they be?“ Answers: –simple hypothetical: If little girl comes then sweets go to her room  „in the girl‘s room“ –counterfactual: sweets were on top shelf. If little girl had come they would stay there.  „on the top shelf“ cb 

28. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 28 Easy Condition 2: CFR = Hypothetical Sweets are on the bottom shelf – girl comes and takes them. She is wearing boy‘s jacket - Mother thinks it was the boy False belief question: –„Where does the mother think that the sweets are? Counterfactual Question: –„What if not the little girl but the tall boy had come looking for sweets, where would they be?“ Answers: –simple hypothetical: If tall boy comes then sweets go to his room  „in the boy‘s room“ –counterfactual: sweets were on bottom shelf. If boy had come they would go to his room.  „in the boy‘s room“ cb =

29. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 29 Results Tough : CFR Easy Tough : FB

30. 21-05-2011 CCCUE-Düsseldorf ESF-LogiCCC 30