Overview Background Background Validated Needs Validated Needs –Mr. Eli Jacks, NOAA / NWS –Dr. Al Riebau, USDA / FS –Lt Col David Andrus, OFCM Framework to Meet the Needs Framework to Meet the Needs Status of Assessment Status of Assessment

Background 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary

Background Wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities receive approximately $2.7B in federal funding annually Wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities receive approximately $2.7B in federal funding annually $ in millions US Dept of Agriculture2,3202,0101,6371,8851,8561,911 US Dept of Interior Total3,1952,7942,4682,6412,5862,713

Background Western Governors’ Association Request, June 2005 Western Governors’ Association Request, June 2005 –“The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA ’ s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”

Background ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 –“OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.” By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed

–DHS  FEMA  U.S. Fire Administration –DOC  NOAA  NIST –DOD –DOE –DOI  U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service  National Park Service  Bureau of Land Mgmt  U.S. Geological Survey  Bureau of Indian Affairs –DOT  FAA  FHWA –EPA –HHS –NASA –USDA  U.S. Forest Service –Subject Matter Experts  State Foresters  Universities Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from: Background – JAG/NWFWNA

The JAG was charged with addressing the following functional areas: The JAG was charged with addressing the following functional areas: –Data collection, integrity, processing, and archival –Fire weather research and development –Forecast Products and Services –Modeling, prediction, and data assimilation –Information dissemination and technologies –Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration –User response, decision support, and resulting user impacts –Funding and human resources (crosscutting) –Socioeconomic factors Background - JAG/NWFWNA

Background Input from Many Activities Spring/Summer 2006: Mini-workshops held to frame overall needs and issues Spring/Summer 2006: Mini-workshops held to frame overall needs and issues Fall 2006: San Diego Fire Congress Special Session increased community feedback on the needs of fire weather (FW) users Fall 2006: San Diego Fire Congress Special Session increased community feedback on the needs of fire weather (FW) users Winter 2006: OFCM canvassed more than 1200 federal FW community users; WGA requested input from state, tribal, and local FW users Winter 2006: OFCM canvassed more than 1200 federal FW community users; WGA requested input from state, tribal, and local FW users Spring 2007: Analyzed input from 745 federal, state, tribal, and local fire weather users to derive specific fire weather needs Spring 2007: Analyzed input from 745 federal, state, tribal, and local fire weather users to derive specific fire weather needs

43 National = CT 5 DE 2 DC 0 MA 5 MD 5 NJ 8 RI Background Contributor Geographic Distribution

Background Assessment Process Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following duties: Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following duties: –Planner354 –Weather provider350 –Firefighter348 –Fuels management324 –Land manager242 –Researcher172 –Air quality manager163 –Emergency worker (non-fire)158

Background Assessment Process Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following functions: Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following functions: –Fire season operations564 –Active fire operations528 –Long-term planning501 –Pre-season operations498 –Post fire operations453 –Post fire evaluation427

Background Assessment Process Users who frequently or occasionally work at the following levels: Users who frequently or occasionally work at the following levels: –Federal494 –Local448 –State429 –Private217 –Academic153 –Tribal149 –NGO58

Background Assessment Process 47 needs identified within 24 themes 47 needs identified within 24 themes –32 needs grouped under 9 themes –15 needs stand-alone with their own theme –All functional areas covered Needs information includes: Needs information includes: –Urgency: Urgent or Non-urgent –Timeframe over which the need can reasonably be met: Short-term, Long-term, or Short/Long-term –Factors that will contribute to meeting the need: Coordination, Data, Management, Processes, Resources, Science, and Technology

Validated Needs Functional Areas (FA) Functional Areas (FA) –FA 1: Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival –FA 3: Forecast Products and Services –FA 7: User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts Mr. Eli Jacks NOAA National Weather Service

Validated Needs Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival –Data management improvements to support a national observing system  4D data cube  Validated obs in real-time  A sensor suite of fixed and deployable components  A prioritized list of data elements –Unification of weather station measurement standards for optimal national use  For example: NWS and Forest Service have different standards for measuring atmospheric conditions

Validated Needs Forecast Products and Services Forecast Products and Services –Product improvements at each level of government for various wildland fire- related duties (e.g., firefighter)  Tailored products and tools  Availability of product accuracy information  Detailed climate outlooks

Validated Needs Forecast Products and Services Forecast Products and Services –Improved training and reference materials to facilitate proper interpretation and use of products  Existing materials need to be made available  Existing materials need to be improved based on best practices  Training and reference material must accompany new products

Validated Needs Forecast Products and Services Forecast Products and Services –New and improved products:  NWS Fire Weather Forecast improvements  NWS Fire Weather Forecast verification data  Fire weather warnings disseminated more widely and with longer lead times  Improved smoke dispersion products  NFDRS forecasts for more locations  More fine-scale fuel moisture data and forecasts  Better representations of stability and upper- level atmospheric forecasts

Validated Needs Forecast Products and Services Forecast Products and Services –Standardized product requirements  Standard representations of weather and fuels information –For example, a synoptic surface chart includes isobars and surface plots in a standard format, easily understood by all meteorologists  Clear depictions of critical threshold / breakpoint conditions  Product accuracy requirements

Validated Needs User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts –Better feedback between development and user communities  Allows for more relevant decision-support tools –A decision-support tools repository  Contains reference and training documentation and allows for user feedback –More smoke mgmt decision-support tools

Validated Needs Functional Areas Functional Areas –FA 2: Fire Weather Research and Development –FA 4: Modeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation –FA 5: Information Dissemination and Technologies Dr. Al Riebau USDA Forest Service

Validated Needs Fire Weather R&D Fire Weather R&D –Better understanding of fire potential, fire combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/variability –Simple access to information on R&D initiatives, efforts, and successes –Systematic integration of research into ops –Feedback mechanisms for users to meaningfully impact R&D efforts

Validated Needs Modeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation Modeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation –Rapid transitioning of modeling advances into ops –Operational models to better characterize:  Complex terrain  Coupled fire-atmosphere interactions  Climate and climate-change impacts  Fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate change –Wide dissemination of model accuracy and confidence information –Model output in easy-to-use graphical and text formats (e.g., GIS format, PDA-supported formats)

Validated Needs Info Dissemination and Technologies Info Dissemination and Technologies –A coordinated, “one-stop” fire weather Internet presence  Facilitates access to pertinent weather data and products in region of interest –Consistent dissemination of timely products and services to model users –More products in low bandwidth formats for dissemination via telephones and PDAs –A centralized means for collaboration on products and services  Examples: Chat rooms, Bulletin boards

Validated Needs Info Dissemination and Technologies Info Dissemination and Technologies –Robust, real-time access to data  Continuity of operations planning for: –Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Data Collection System (DCS), which serves as an integral mechanism for data flow –Automated Sorting, Conversion, and Distribution System (ASCADS), which serves as a crucial node for data flow

Validated Needs Functional Areas Functional Areas –FA 6: Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and Collaboration –FA 8: Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting) –FA 9: Socioeconomic Factors Lt Col David Andrus OFCM

Validated Needs Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and Collaboration Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and Collaboration –Review training programs and establish best practices –Validate and improve training programs –Comprehensive training and certification –More state-of-the-art training options, to include distance-learning

Validated Needs Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting) Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting) –Leverage existing and pursue new resources, as required, to:  Develop a real-time, 4D characterization of the atmosphere and Earth’s surface  Improve smoke forecasts to better relate fire weather with new EPA air quality requirements Socioeconomic Factors Socioeconomic Factors –Tap into state-of-the-art socioeconomic outreach tools to better inform and educate the public on the importance of understanding, mitigating, and preparing for wildland fire

Framework to Meet the Needs A complete framework to meet identified needs will be developed over the next few months A complete framework to meet identified needs will be developed over the next few months Framing Concepts: Framing Concepts: –Leverage existing programs and initiatives of responsible Federal agencies  Examples: WIST, JUTB, EOS/NEXRAD, NOAA SAB –Leverage existing and forthcoming technologies  Examples: GEOSS, MPAR, NexGen, UASs –Recommend new initiatives and improvements to be considered in Federal agencies’ ongoing program reviews and re-evaluations of products and services –Define both near- and intermediate-term priorities –Identify partnering opportunities (horizontal/vertical)

Status of Assessment Assessment has three phases Assessment has three phases –Summary of user needs and issues  Drafted for release this summer  Includes: –Validated needs –Framing concepts to meet needs  Will be briefed to WGA in June –Detailed report of user needs and issues  Planned for release later this year

Status of Assessment Assessment has three phases (cont’d) Assessment has three phases (cont’d) –A framework to meet the needs  Work to begin this summer  JAG will work with responsible agencies and interagency groups to: –Assess current capabilities to meet the needs –Assess any gaps in capability to meet the needs –Recommend program initiatives to fill capability gaps –Develop a detailed, implementation plan with agreed-upon partner roles in meeting needs

Status of Assessment The JAG requests ICMSSR support to: The JAG requests ICMSSR support to: –Complete a needs summary report –Complete a detailed needs report –Develop a framework for NWS and Predictive Services to meet identified needs Successful completion will satisfy the WGA request and greatly benefit the wildland fire community Successful completion will satisfy the WGA request and greatly benefit the wildland fire community

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