Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Beijing, September 25, 2005 Institutions and Technology for Development: on sources and.

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Presentation transcript:

Joachim von Braun International Food Policy Research Institute Beijing, September 25, 2005 Institutions and Technology for Development: on sources and policies of pro-poor growth in agriculture and the rural economy

Questions  What are the evolving sources of agricultural growth?  is large “beautiful” for agricultural growth?  how can agricultural growth be designed to be pro-poor?

Overview I. Structure and Change in Global Agricultural Systems and Productivity - Food system change and small farms - Productivity in agriculture II. Sources of Agricultural Growth and Rural Development - Institutions - Infrastructure III. Science and Technology - Agricultural research - Information and communications technology IV. Global Scenarios’ pro- and anti-poor effects

Bifurcations of world agriculture: stylized facts Agricultural Domains DominantMarginal Farms Large assets Small assets Agro-ecologiesSustainableNon-sustainable TechnologiesUsing advanced scienceLittle connected to science Markets in which they operate IntegratedFragmented Agro-industryCompetitiveNoncompetitive People directly affectedFewMany

GROWTH RATES OF WHEAT YIELDS ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH in percent 1970s1980s1990s2000s* All Developing Countries Brazil China India (Source: FAOSTAT, various years) *

Total Agr. Factor Productivity Growth in China, India, USA; 1970s-1990s ChinaIndiaUSA Sources: Fan and Zhang (2002) for China; Fan, Hazell, and Thorat (1999) for India, and Ahern et al. (1998) for USA.

IMPACT model projections Progressive Policy Actions Scenario: New Focus on Agricultural Growth and Rural Development Policy Failure Scenario: Trade and Political Conflict, rise in protectionism worldwide Technology and Resource Management Failure Scenario: Adverse technology/natural resource interactions

Projected world cereal yields Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

Projected world maize price Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

Projected number of undernourished children, China Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections (February 2005)

Questions  What are the evolving sources of agricultural growth?  is large “beautiful” for agricultural growth?  how can agricultural growth be designed to be pro-poor?