NORTHEAST REGION HABITAT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT Hector Galbraith National Wildlife Federation

NORTHEASTERN REGIONAL VA – SCALE AND OBJECTIVES  13 states and DC  260,000 miles 2  map variation in habitat vulnerabilities across region  provide states with regional context for conservation decisions  Identify adaptation options  Build capacities within state agencies

NEAFWA REGIONAL VA - PROCESS 1. Convene expert panel of state, federal, NGO personnel 2. Develop predictive habitat vulnerability model 3. Test model and modify 4. Form habitat expert workgroups 5. Select habitats for analyses 6. Run model on habitats

1. Vulnerability to climate change Index 2. Vulnerability to non-climate stressors Index 3. Interactions 4. Overall future vulnerability Index 5. Confidence evaluation 6. Narratives THE NEAFWA HABITAT VULNERABILITY MODEL

HABITATS SELECTED FOR ANALYSIS  Alpine tundra  Northern hardwood forest  Southern/central oak forests  Pitch pine barrens  Boreal bogs  Southern spruce fir forest  Shrub swamp  Emergent marsh  Montane spruce fir forest

REGIONAL ZONES

Habitat Vulnerability Rankings in Latitudinal Zones Zone IZone IIZone IIIZone IV Acadian-Appalachian Alpine Tundra Highly Vulnerable Acadian-Appalachian Montane Spruce-Fir Forest VulnerableCritically Vulnerable Laurentian-Acadian Northern Hardwood Forest Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Critically Vulnerable Central Mixed Oak-Pine ForestsLeast Vulnerable Less Vulnerable Vulnerable Pitch Pine BarrensLess Vulnerable Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain Basin Peat Swamp Less Vulnerable Central and Southern Appalachian Spruce-Fir Forest Critically Vulnerable Boreal-Laurentian BogHighly Vulnerable Shrub SwampVulnerable Emergent MarshVulnerable

CLIMATE-SCHLIMATE!  Some habitats likely to be most vulnerable to non-climate stressors: –Pitch pine scrub oak forests –Atlantic white cedar forests

HabitatClimate change Vulnerability Non-climate change vulnerability TundraHighly VulnerableVulnerable Pine BarrensLeast VulnerableVulnerable Shrub SwampLess VulnerableVulnerable Southern Spruce- Fir Critically Vulnerable

REPORTS ON NEAFWA WEBSITE 1. Projected climate change in Northeast 2. Building the NEAFWA habitat model 3. Coastal ecological system vulnerabilities 4. Cold water fish habitat vulnerabilities upland and wetland habitat vulnerabilities 6. Habitat vulnerabilities in NY State

NEXT STEPS  Modify model for use at smaller scales  Develop rapid assessment process  Make available and provide training for land trusts, municipalities, smaller conservation organizations