1 Inter-industrial Structure in the Asia-Pacific Region: Growth and Integration, by using the 2000 Asian International Input-Output Table Bo Meng, Hajime Sato, Jun Nakamura, Hiroshi Kuwamori and Satoshi Inomata (IDE) 2006/05/30 ABCDE Tokyo

2 Purpose to summarize the characteristics and patterns of change in industrial structures and trade structures of the countries in Asia-Pacific region from the three viewpoints of time, space, and industry, by using the AIO table for 1985, 1990, 1995, and to summarize the characteristics and patterns of change in industrial structures and trade structures of the countries in Asia-Pacific region from the three viewpoints of time, space, and industry, by using the AIO table for 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.

3 Contents Introduction of AIO Table Introduction of AIO Table Industrial Structures and Growth Patterns of Asian Countries Industrial Structures and Growth Patterns of Asian Countries Asian Countries’ Trade Structures and Patterns of Change Asian Countries’ Trade Structures and Patterns of Change Backward Linkages and Final Demand Interdependence Backward Linkages and Final Demand Interdependence Conclusion Conclusion

4 1. Comparison between AIO Tables at 5 Different Time Points

5 2. Layout of the AIO Table 2000

6 3. Industrial Structures and Growth Patterns of Asian Countries 3.1A Industrial Structure Defined by Gross Domestic Output

7 3.1B Typology of Industrial Structure (24-sector base)

8 3.2 Industrial Structure Defined by Specialization Coefficient 001Paddy 002Other agricultural products 003Livestock and poultry 004Forestry 005Fishery 006Crude petroleum and natural gas 007Other mining 008Food, beverage and tobacco 009Textile, leather, and the products thereof 010Timber and wooden products 011Pulp, paper and printing 012Chemical products 013Petroleum and petro products 019Other manufacturing products 014Rubber products 015Non-metallic mineral products 016Metal products 017Machinery 018Transport equipment 019Other manufacturing products 020Electricity, gas, and water supply 021Construction 022Trade and transport 023Services 024Public administration

9 4. Asian Countries' Trade Structures and Patterns of Change 4.1A Changes in Regional Trade in East Asia

10 4. Asian Countries' Trade Structures and Patterns of Change 4.1B Changes in Regional Trade in East Asia

11 4. Asian Countries' Trade Structures and Patterns of Change 4.2 Structural Changes in Interindustry Trade

12 5. Backward/Forward Linkages of Asian Countries

Backward Linkages of Asian Countries

14 5. Key findings about Backward Linkage effects In summary, the presence of Japan and the United States remains huge in the Asia-Pacific region under review. In summary, the presence of Japan and the United States remains huge in the Asia-Pacific region under review. the comparison with the 1995 table indicates that, first, the interdependence in the region is intensifying. the comparison with the 1995 table indicates that, first, the interdependence in the region is intensifying. second, the importance of China and Korea, and particularly of China, appear to be rising in Asia-Pacific region. second, the importance of China and Korea, and particularly of China, appear to be rising in Asia-Pacific region.

15 6. Final Demand Interdependence of Asian Countries

16 6. Key findings about Final Demand Interdependence (1)On an all-industry basis, Asian countries tend to increase their dependence on overseas markets, with Indonesia, Thailand, and Taiwan standing out in this respect. (2)Japan and the United States still maintain overwhelming presence among Asian countries. (4) China's influence is rapidly expanding in all countries under review, with its influence particularly pronounced in heavy industry. (5) Interdependence within the ASEAN region is relatively small, except between Malaysia and Singapore. But Thailand and Malaysia are deepening their interdependence.

17 Concluding Remarks Maturing of NIES, catch-up by ASEAN, rise of China Maturing of NIES, catch-up by ASEAN, rise of China → Asian financial crisis(1997) → ASEAN and Korea were affected, Mainland China felt little impact → Chinese economy has boosted it presence in Asian region. Industrial structure: share of service sector is increasingly expanding in JP, USA, and NIES. ASEAN are shifting the focus to secondary industry, China, as an old industrial nation has risen as a new industrial nation (joined the group of ASEAN). Industrial structure: share of service sector is increasingly expanding in JP, USA, and NIES. ASEAN are shifting the focus to secondary industry, China, as an old industrial nation has risen as a new industrial nation (joined the group of ASEAN). Trade structure: a structure revolving around JP and USA → Three-pillared structure led by JP, USA, and China. China depends heavily on JP and USA and is only recently expanding trade with Korea and Taiwan. China ’ s presence in ASEAN region is not yet as large as that of JP and USA. Trade structure: a structure revolving around JP and USA → Three-pillared structure led by JP, USA, and China. China depends heavily on JP and USA and is only recently expanding trade with Korea and Taiwan. China ’ s presence in ASEAN region is not yet as large as that of JP and USA. FTAs and EPSs → Diversification of regional trade → intensified interdependence among countries in Asia. In terms of the backward linkage effects, China has the largest power of dispersion. FTAs and EPSs → Diversification of regional trade → intensified interdependence among countries in Asia. In terms of the backward linkage effects, China has the largest power of dispersion. Export market: Asian countries have achieved economic growth by increasing their dependence on JP and USA ’ s market. China ’ s growth has enabled it to offer an export market for Asian countries. The intra-ASEAN market appears to have little growing. Export market: Asian countries have achieved economic growth by increasing their dependence on JP and USA ’ s market. China ’ s growth has enabled it to offer an export market for Asian countries. The intra-ASEAN market appears to have little growing.

18 Thank you very much for your kind attention