Minimalist Mars Mission Establishing a Human Toehold on the Red Planet Executive Summary DevelopSpace MinMars Team

MinMars: Motivation and Concept Ultimate goal: sustainable human expansion into space – making humanity a multi-planetary species Logical first step towards this goal: establishing a human settlement on Mars and expanding it into a mostly self-sustaining colony –Why Mars? Mars is the best choice for an initial settlement (resources, atmosphere, gravity, accessibility / transportation requirements) MinMars is concerned with establishing an initial human toehold: 4 humans get to Mars and remain there for the rest of their lives –Functionally corresponds to Bob Zubrin’s exploration and base phases –The initial crew proves long-term habitability and tests the technologies necessary to establish a more expansive human settlement and colony The DevelopSpace MinMars study is intended to establish toehold near-term feasibility and identify important topics for detailed work –Somewhat similar in function to NASA’s Mars design reference missions

MinMars Toehold Outpost Architecture Habitat: assembled out of several modules (hard- shell as well as inflatable); number of modules dependent on Mars lander payload (2 mt assumed) Power: thin-film solar arrays & li-ion batteries Location: around 30 deg northern latitude due to solar power generation concerns Life support & ISRU: high-closure life support with water distillation and filtering; in-situ oxygen and buffer gas production; initially no in-situ water production, water required for loop closure is imported Resupply: very conservative estimate of ~24 mt of resupply per opportunity (for 4 crew); would require 12 launches with performance 30 mt to LEO (old SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy performance class) Surface mobility: unpressurized rovers (exploration radius of km); would be similar to NASA’s lunar mobility chassis Image credit: NASA

Cargo Transportation Earth Mars Low Mars Orbit Highly Elliptic Earth Orbit (e.g. GTO) 1-13 months of loitering Direct Mars entry (lifting) using an extension of Viking EDL technology Commercial Earth launch (e.g. on a Falcon 9 Heavy) Trans-Mars coast (~ 6-8 months) 2 mt of useful payload on the surface of Mars; 1 km landing accuracy Pre-deployed beacon Note: concept based on old SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy performance numbers – needs to be revised

Mars EDL Concept Analyses indicate that existing Mars EDL technology can be extended to a payload mass of 2000 kg –See NASA Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0 –Existing Mars EDL technology was developed for Viking => Extension of the MSL EDL system (however, no skycrane, lander stage instead): –MSL ballistic coefficient: 115 kg/m 2 –MSL reference area (4.6 m diameter): m 2 –Payload mass fraction on entry: 775 kg / 2800 kg = 0.28 –MSL hypersonic drag coefficient: 2800 kg / (115 kg/m 2 x m 2 ) = 1.46 –MSL propellant mass estimate: 8 x 50 kg = 400 kg MinMars EDL system characteristics: –Entry mass: 2000 kg / 0.28 = 7143 kg –Reference area: 7143 kg / (1.46 x 115 kg / m 2 ) = m 2 –Aeroshell diameter: 7.36 m –Lander propellant mass: 2000 kg / 775 kg x 400 kg = 1032 kg –EDL system dry mass (including the cruise stage): 8000 kg – 2000 kg – 1032 kg = 4968 kg Ballistic coefficient: MSL scaled up 7.36 m MinMars aeroshell Payload envelope (cylinder): 1.5 m diameter, 2.5 m height Note: concept based on old SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy performance numbers – needs to be revised

Crew Transportation (for 2 Crew) Earth Mars Low Mars Orbit Low Earth Orbit (e.g. GTO) 1-5 months of loitering for Earth departure stages Direct Mars entry (lifting) using an extension of Viking EDL technology Commercial cargo launch (e.g. on a Falcon 9 Heavy) Trans-Mars coast (~ 6 months) 2 crew members on the surface of Mars; 1 km landing accuracy Pre-deployed beacon Mars lander ITH Earth departure stage 2 Earth departure stage 1 Commercial crew launch (e.g. Falcon 9 / Dragon) Earth departure stages discarded ITH discarded Note: concept based on old SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy performance numbers – needs to be revised

Net-Present-Cost (NPC) Analysis Assumptions Cost estimates for spacecraft, surface infrastructure, and propulsion systems carried out with mass-based CERs –All estimates in FY04 $ Mn Launch cost for a Falcon 9 Heavy class launch vehicle assumed to be FY04 $ 150 Mn Learning rates (and associated reduction of unit costs) not included in the analysis presented here Non-discounted as well as discounted analyses (sensitivity analysis to discount rate) Time horizon for DDT&E: 5 opportunities (~ 10 years) Please note: this is a notional analysis intended only to assess orders of magnitude and relative importance of cost contributions

NPC by Category Non-discounted5% discount rate10% discount rate Note: concept based on old SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy performance numbers – needs to be revised

Technology Investment Options In-situ food production –Could significantly improve resupply cost and risk (dependence on Earth-based supply) In-situ water production –Could significantly improve resupply cost and risk (dependence on Earth-based supply) In-situ production of spare parts –Could significantly improve resupply cost and risk (dependence on Earth-based supply) Higher-payload-mass EDL systems + HLLV –Reduces the number of landings, assembly operations –Makes most sense when combined with a higher-payload Earth launch capability (50 – 70 – 100 mt to LEO) Advanced EVA suits for Mars surface environment –Could significantly improve resupply cost (no metal oxide)