PNR Air Quality Science (PAQS) What we did with our money and yours…

Regional Emissions

Regions of Interest O&G Pipeline Mines Edmonton Calgary Oil Sands Power Plants Smelters

2003 Banff Burns PM sampling in smoke from prescribed burns Analyzed PM for Elements, Ions and PAHs Followed up with lab micro-burns controlled for Fuel Fuel Temperature and character of combustion Temperature and character of combustion Oxygen Oxygen Low Oxygen, modest fire temp; generated highest Retene levels

2004 Fire work Planned burns disrupted due to weather Research ongoing for using multi-axis photos. Assess fire spread rates Assess fire spread rates Assess plume rise characteristics Assess plume rise characteristics Assess plume volume Assess plume volume Assembled portable package for PM 2.5, CO, CO 2, Temp and windspeed Assembled portable package for PM 2.5, CO, CO 2, Temp and windspeed Anticipate spring burns (post April)

PM work in Saskatchewan Funding allocated to study PM ($20K) Contract process underway Evaluate Boundary Dam area Use surrounding area for context Northern States Northern States Bratts etc. Bratts etc. GDAD application to PM also funded. Contract Issued Contract Issued

Prairie PM 2.5 climatology Summary report underway Seasonal variations Regional characteristics Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba Few stations in SK and MB Few stations in SK and MB Record too short for trends

Modelling Projects Model Evaluation (aircraft measurements) Source Sector Analysis and Control Scenarios Sensitivity of O3 Predictions to Uncertainties in Biogenic Emissions (tree speciation) Sensitivity of O3 Predictions to Uncertainties in Biogenic Emissions (tree speciation) Episodic Runs Transboundary Transport – CAN/US, Provincial Sulphur and Nitrogen Budgets Acid Deposition Future Emission Scenarios Annual Model Runs (2002 & 1999)

MM5/CMAQ Annual Runs 36 km grid most of N. America: Complete Complete First 12km NWT; Complete this week Complete this week More 12 km and 4 km areas planned 1999 not started

36km 12km 4km Coarse Domain Northern Domain AB-SK Domain Oil Sands Edm-Calg CMAQ Modelling Domains

Support Projects (Emissions) 4km Area and Mobile Emissions Agricultural Emissions Northern Emissions Projected emissions for year 2010 Improving Biogenic Emissions by using the Canadian National Forest Inventory

Prairie2005 Overall aim is address budgets of PM and Ozone in Prairies Focus on fluxes in and out of Alberta Modeled Modeled Measured Measured Additional measurements will evaluate Model performance Model performance Capability of current monitoring network Capability of current monitoring network Three dimensional nature of AQ Three dimensional nature of AQ

Air-Quality Models CHRONOS (MSC): 21 km horizontal resolution North American forecast of O 3, bulk speciated PM 2.5 and PM hour forecasts. AURAMS (MSC): 21 km horizontal resolution Western Canada forecast of O 3, size and composition resolved PM and precursors. 48 hour forecasts. Higher resolution runs in post-measurement campaign, non-forecast mode. CMAQ (US EPA, used by MSC-PNR): Western Canada simulations of O 3, size and composition resolved PM and precursors. 36, 12, 4 km runs (by PNR) in post- measurement campaign, non-forecast mode.

Mobile Platforms (1): Ground Based MSC CRUISER: Continuous (< 15 minute) measurements of CO, NO, NO y /NO x, SO 2, O 3, VOCs, black carbon, PM mass, ultrafine particle counts, 30 – 1000 nm particle size and composition. MSC RASCAL: scanning lidar: particle scattering/absorption, boundary layer structure. AENV MAML (Mobile Air Monitoring Laboratory): continuous O 3, CO, NO x, NH 3, SO 2, H 2 S, THC, PAHs, TSP, PM 10, PM 2.5. All three also measure meteorology (wind direction and speed, temperature, RH). MAML and CRUISER overlap some measurements – could be deployed in different locations at the same time.

Mobile Platforms (2): Aircraft Based Cessna Cessna 188 Tandem Flights Two aircraft flying in tandem along same trajectory. Cessna 188 “crop-duster”: payload: Hg, O 3, condensation nucleus counter, particle sizes (CPSP and FFSP), filters, VOC canisters, NO x, meteorology package Cessna 207: two payloads, swapped half-way during the study. Meteorology package +… a) Particle size and composition (AMS) + SO 2 monitor. b) Downward LIDAR.

Objectives P2005 During 04/05 Set up the aircraft Set up the aircraft Set up logistics Set up logistics Finalize science and project plan Finalize science and project plan Coordinate Partners Coordinate Partners05/06 Conduct the experiment Conduct the experiment Collate and distribute data Collate and distribute data Start writeup Start writeup Determine appropriate follow-up Determine appropriate follow-up

Regional AQPP Operational AQI forecast started in May AQPP scientist hired on term Pursuing second scientist for program Over the winter Establish collection remaining AQ obs in real time: SK and MB Establish collection remaining AQ obs in real time: SK and MB Generate forest fire smoke guidance tools Generate forest fire smoke guidance toolsBeyond: Develop alternative forecast methods including statistical methods Develop alternative forecast methods including statistical methods Outreach Outreach

CORE and Acid Rain 30K last year and this for upgrades at Bratts. Bought Hg calibrator and scale last year Site upgrades this year and TBD Lots of acid rain committee work Likely some acid applications to annual model runs.

EA work and the North Oil Sands continues to expand Upgrader proposed NE of Edmonton Diamond Mining continues Mackenzie Valley Pipeline looms Building monitoring program with RWED. O 3 and NO x monitors at Inuvik. O 3 and NO x monitors at Inuvik.