September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Slide 1ECMWF forecast User Meeting -- Reading, June 2006 Verification of weather parameters Anna Ghelli, ECMWF.

Advertisements

INITIAL CONDITION: 31 May 2014 Extended range prediction during 2014 season Extended range prediction during 2014 season Using CFS based Grand Ensemble.

September 10, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification.

Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST.

Current Status 0f Monsoon th June, ONSET AND ADVANCE OF MONSOON 2009.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 24 September 2012.

Potential Predictability and Extended Range Prediction of Monsoon ISO’s Prince K. Xavier Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Indian Institute of.

© Crown copyright Met Office Forecasting the onset of the African rainy seasons Michael Vellinga, Alberto Arribas and Richard Graham S2S Conference, Washington,

Forecast Verification Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth System Sciences, India.

Long Range Forecast Update for the 2009 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall India Meteorological Department Presents.

Weiming Sha and Guixing Chen Tohoku University, Japan 1st MAHASRI/AMY WS Yokohama/Tokyo, Study on Monsoon Onset in South China (Huanan area)

Dr. K.K. Singh Head, Agromet

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

© 2007 Lawrence Moore June 2008 Climate Briefing  Recent Climate Variability  Seasonal Outlook for the Globe  ENSO Status and Tutorial.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

India summer monsoon rainfall in ECMWF Sys3 – ICTP, August Indian summer monsoon rainfall in the ECMWF seasonal fc. System-3: predictability and.

Predictability of intraseasonal oscillatory modes and ENSO-monsoon relationship in NCEP CFS with reference to Indian & Pacific Ocean Shailendra Rai (PI)

The South American Monsoon System Summary July 2007-June 2008 Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 2008 For more information, visit:

Monsoon Desk at NCEP NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC National Monsoon Mission Scoping Workshop April 11-15, 2011.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 8 Mar 2011 For Real-time information:

© Crown copyright Met Office Extended-range forecasts for onset of the African rainy seasons examples and ideas for future work Michael Vellinga, Richard.

11 Predictability of Monsoons in CFS V. Krishnamurthy Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Institute of Global Environment and Society Calverton, MD.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Chapter 9: Weather Forecasting Surface weather maps 500mb weather maps Satellite Images Radar Images.

MINERVA workshop, GMU, Sep MINERVA and the ECMWF coupled ensemble systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

1. Introduction 2. The model and experimental design 3. Space-time structure of systematic error 4. Space-time structure of forecast error 5. Error growth.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 27, 2014.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 01 July 2013.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in Asia.

Climate-Weather Presentation For Climate Modeling 11 September 2015.

One-year re-forecast ensembles with CCSM3.0 using initial states for 1 January and 1 July in Model: CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with state-of-the-art.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 03, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 09, 2014.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 INITIAL CONDITION 13 th September 2013 Extended range prediction during 2013 season.

Monsoon 2015 Foreshadow 102% OF LPA (+/-4%) NORMAL JUNE THROUGH SEPTEMBER (LPA = 887mm)

Seasonal Outlook for 2010 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall D. S. Pai Director, Long Range Forecasting South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF -1) April.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 16,

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification.

1 Summary of CFS ENSO Forecast December 2010 update Mingyue Chen, Wanqiu Wang and Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 1.Latest forecast of Nino3.4 index.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 March 2015 For more information,

DisclaimerDisclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

Ms. Comstock Ms. Conigliaro

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Forecast Outlook for the

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

GPC-Seoul: Status and future plans

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

LONG RANGE FORECAST SW MONSOON

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

Forecast Verification

National Monsoon Mission Scoping Workshop April 11-15, 2011

Country Presentation SASCOF September 2016 Maldives

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Seasonal Predictions for South Asia

Forecast Verification

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

Forecast Verification

Disclaimer The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use. For any clarification/interpretation,

Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification

Presentation transcript:

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 Forecast Verification

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 2 Forecast of Monsoon Onset over Kerala Based on 16 May 2013: 29 May 2013 Onset date forecasts are obtained from each 11 member of CFSv2 45 day forecast. Then ensemble mean is given as the final forecasted onset date. Y axis on each panel is in mm/day for rainfall (bars) and m/s for 850hPa wind(green line). Red circle is the onset date and also written at the top of each panel Onset declared by IMD: 1 st June 2013

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 3 NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification CFSv2 GFSbc F/C from 16May IC F/C from 16May IC

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 4 NCEP/TRMM Analysis Wind (850hPa) and R/F Verification CFSv2 GFSbc F/C from 26May IC F/C from 26May IC

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 5 16 May IC21 May IC MISO F/C Verification FOR 25 DAYS

September 4, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 6 26 May IC31 May IC MISO F/C verification For 25 Days