Brian Lihani Deputy Chief, Aerospace Warning Branch HQ NORAD/J35W 11 May 2011 Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) This Briefing is Classified UNCLASSIFIED

Purpose of Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) Evaluate performance, operational effectiveness, operational suitability, and estimated costs of alternative systems to meet a mission capability Assess advantages and disadvantages of alternatives being considered to satisfy capabilities. Includes sensitivity of each alternative to possible changes in key assumptions or variables A key input to defining system capabilities in the Capability Development Document 2 Bottom line Conduct analysis to determine the best solution based on cost, risk, and capability

What determines an AoA is required? DoDI implies that AoAs are mandatory for all programs In reality, the true driver is statutory requirements where AoAs are mandatory for: All potential and designated Acquisition Category (ACAT) I efforts ACAT-I: Major Defense Acquisition Program (MDAP) 10 USC § 2366a & b: Milestone Certifications to Congress ACAT-IA: Major Automated Information System (MAIS) 40 USC § 1401 et seq.: Clinger-Cohen Act (CCA) of 1996 PL § 8808: CCA Compliance & MAIS Funding Can be designated ACAT I / IA if “JROC Interest” – for programs where the capabilities have a significant impact on joint warfighting or have a potential impact across Services 3 UNCLASSIFIED

AoA Defined An AoA is the evaluation of the performance, operational effectiveness, operational suitability, and estimated costs of alternative systems to meet a mission capability. (CJCSI ) 4 Which one, in what configuration… or is it a combination (i.e., system of systems [SoS] or Family of Systems [FoS])? UNCLASSIFIED

What is an AoA? Key AoA components Operational environment i.e., threats and scenarios Alternative development Employment concept development Risk analysis Effectiveness analysis Cost analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis Value to the decision process Identifies the viable trade space (not just the 100% solution) Creates audit trail of the analysis process Provides an analytical basis for any acquisitions that may follow 5 Joint CONOPS Joint Capabilities Integration & Development System (JCIDS) VCJCS or Service Chief Oversight Defense Acquisition System MDA Oversight Calendar Driven Need Driven Event Driven Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution (PPBE) Process DEPSECDEF Oversight ANALYSIS UNCLASSIFIED

When are AoAs performed? Suggested by an Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) Authorized at the Material Development Decision (MDD) Conducted during the Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) phase Updated prior to Milestones B and C as directed by MDA Operations and Support Engineering and Manufacturing Development Production and Deployment Technology Development Materiel Solution Analysis Defense Acquisition Management System (DODI ) Development Planning & MDD Prep Capability Development Document Technology Development Strategy AoA MDDMS AMS BMS C Concept Development (AFI ) Capability Production Document Initial Capability Document AoA Study Guidance and Study Plan Required Documentation

How long do AoAs take and cost? Short answer: it depends! Key Drivers: Decision maker expectations Available resources: time, personnel/expertise, funding 7 Study Results “Trade Space” Good Fast Cheap “Good, fast, or cheap… pick two!” UNCLASSIFIED Data for 56 AoAs ** Average length 20 months 61% took between months Variations generally correlate to Complexity of the problem Stakeholder politics Funding levels How much analysis already done Times are approximate, slightly conservative Those longer than 36 months have extenuating circumstances Data for 27 AoAs ( ) ** Average cost $3.9M Gov’t salaries not included Earlier AoA costs very suspect Primary factors affecting cost: Blue Suit vs Contractor mix Non-AoA work counted in the total (engineering design, test, etc.) Length of the AoA (consistent $ K/mo) Costs are approximate; often the study lead reluctant to give us costs ** Data provided by OAS

Cost of AoA 2000-present: cost range from $500K to $11.5M (Ground Moving-Target Indicator (GMTI) GMTI estimated cost was $25M – provided by Cost lead 3600 funding only – money requested by Space and Missile Center (SMC) to directly fund work 3400 funding and/or “in-house” contractor support Prompt Global Strike (PGS) AoA Pre-AoA prior to 2003 – all work “out of hide” funded ADM assigned Reported to AFROCC 2008; Final Report signed in 2009 Requested analysis continues 8 ** Single country, single component, single service, single MAJCOM, single mission, single technology UNCLASSIFIED

North American Air Domain Awareness – Surveillance Analysis of Alternatives 9 UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO 2. Develop Analysis Plan Review existing knowledge Develop appropriate measures Develop analysis methodologies Socialize the plan and get approval 5. Interpret the Results Determine meaning of the data generated Get independent sanity check 7. Package Results Focus on issues Make it clear and understandable Orient to decision maker Socialize the results and get approval 6. Prove the Answer Recheck assumptions Analyze sensitivities Identify additional analysis needed 3. Gather & Review Data Identify input data requirements Accredit/certify Identify voids Data Types Scenarios Tools Performance Cost 1. Define the Problem (J58) Determine purpose Determine/discuss issues Define alternatives/approaches Determine audience for results Identify potential detractors 4. Execute Analysis Plan Conduct the analysis Effectiveness Cost Risk Affordability Documents required for AoA start: Joint Integrated Air & Missile Defense Organization (JIAMDO) IAMD Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) Approved by JROCM dated 29 Oct 2010 OSD/CA&PE for AoA Study Guidance N-NC/J58 working comments N-NC/J5 Study Plan Currently on hold – awaiting Study Guidance finalization Material Development Decision (MDD) – formal entry point into acquisition process AoA required for ACAT 1 acquisitions (DoDI ) Purpose: Develop an International/Interagency solution to address North American air/cruise missile surveillance gaps and deterioration while maintaining current capabilities Scope: AoA is unique due to scope – current planning has N-NC & ACC as co-leads Timeline/Funding: Currently advertised as months after approval; $5M N-NC/J84 supporting as follows: Effectiveness Analysis Team Lead, Risk Team Lead, Integrating Analyst AoA Activities Etc… UNCLASSIFIED/FOUO

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