Assessing Progress in Africa towards the Millennium Development Goals, 2010 Meeting of the Committee of Experts of the 3rd Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance and ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development March 2010, March 2010, Lilongwe, Malawi

Introduction 4 th Annual Report Joint initiative of ECA, AUC, AfDB and now UNDP Based on UNSD data up to 2007 This has 3 sections: –Introduction –Tracking progress on each of the goals –Way forward and conclusion

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Africa as a region has not shared in the global success in reducing poverty even though average incomes in the region have risen The number of Africans living below the poverty line is likely to increase by the target date A significant proportion of the poor in Africa are chronically poor, requiring targeted and special efforts to lift them out of poverty

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, Cont’d Indicator 1.4: Growth rate of GDP per person employed –Results in Africa are mixed –Over 84% of the 48 countries for which data are available report positive trends in labor productivity growth between 1992 and 2007 –East Africa and Southern Africa were the best performers. Labor productivity gain was least in West Africa Indicator 1.8: Prevalence of underweight children under- five years of age –Progress has been slow but positive for the majority of countries Indicator 1.9: Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption –Absolute number of undernourished Africans from million in to million in –But, proportion of population below the minimum level of dietary energy consumption came down marginally from 34% to 30% in SSA

Goal 2: Achieving universal primary education Indicator 2.1: Net enrollment in primary education –Under current trend, most African countries are likely to achieve universal primary enrollment by 2015 Indicator 2.2: Primary completion rates –Progress on completion rate remains very slow Indicator 2.3: Literacy rates of year olds, women and men –Progress is commendable and closely tracks primary completion rates –Gender gap persistent Net enrollment in primary education, for selected African countries Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2009

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Indicator 3.1: Ratios of girls to boys in primary education –Under the current trend, most African countries are on track to achieve gender parity in primary education, but not in secondary and tertiary education –Many countries fail to report on tertiary education Indicator 3.2: Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector –Countries must make an effort to collect gender-disaggregated data –Ethiopia, Central African Republic, South Africa and Botswana seem to be in the right track with + 44% Indicator 3.3: Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament –Changes in women’s representation in national parliaments from 1990 to 2009 have been impressive and overall trends are positive, 31 countries have increased the proportion of seats held by women –Rwanda, Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Uganda lead the continent in 2009 –Southern and East African women are more likely to attain leadership positions than their counterparts in West, Central and North Africa

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Indicator 4.1: Under-five mortality rate –At the current rate the continent is unlikely to reach the target –Declined by 21% between 1990 to 2007 from 168 to 132 per 1000 births –Malaria, pneumonia, neonatal and diarrhea are the major causes of death –All sub-regions except Central Africa have made progress in reducing under-five mortality Under-five-mortality rates 1990, 2007, 2015 estimate and 2015 target Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2009

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality, Cont’d Indicator 4.2: Infant mortality rate –IMR shows a declining trend in most African countries between 1990 and 2007 Indicator 4.3: Proportion of one year-old children immunized against measles –Good rate of progress –Of the 53 African countries, 15 reported 90% and above coverage rate and three countries reported coverage rate below 50% Source: ECA Computations based on UNSD data as updated in July 2009 Progress (percentage change) in infant mortality rate 1990 and 2007

Goal 5: Improve maternal health Indicator 5.1: Maternal mortality ratio –World’s highest MMR, with an estimated 48% of recorded maternal deaths –Inadequate data to assess progress on this indicator Indicator 5.2: Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel –90% and above in 7 countries –50% and below in 19 countries Indicator 5.3: Contraceptive prevalence rate for married people –The rate for 25 countries is above the WHO regional average of 24.4%,while 21 countries are below this average Indicator 5.4: Adolescent birth rate –Adolescent birth rate is lowest in northern African countries Indicator 5.5: Antenatal care coverage –17 countries report a rate above 90% for at least one visit Indicator 5.6: Unmet need for family planning –The rate for 19 countries is above the WHO regional average of 24.4%,while 14 countries are below this average

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Indicator 6.1: HIV prevalence among population aged years –Continued progress in tackling HIV/AIDS –Access ARTs for HIV patients has expanded significantly in most countries, but fails to meet demand –Newly infected dropped to 1.9 million in 2008, a reduction of 17.4% from Indicator 6.3: Proportion of population aged years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS –Comprehensive target is set at 95% by 2010 –Data unavailable, however drops in infection rates suggests increase in awareness Indicator 6.4: Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged years –Inadequate data, but an important element in the prevention of disease transmission

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases, Cont’d Indicator 6.5: Proportion of people with advanced HIV infection with access to Antiretroviral drugs –31% coverage rate, according to latest figures Indicator 6.6: Incidence and death rates associated with malaria –Largest cause of morbidity and mortality –91% of the approximately 800,000 deaths in 2006 were in Africa Indicator 6.7: Proportion of children under-five sleeping under insecticide- treated bed nets –Proportion was 24% in 2008, while the World Health Alliance target is of 80% coverage Indicator 6.8: Proportion of children under-five with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malarial drugs –Treatment of children with anti-malarial and ACT remains low Indicator 6.9: Incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis –All sub-regions show a decline, although to varying degrees –Southern Africa continues to report the highest rate and North Africa the lowest Indicator 6.10: Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course –DOTS increased considerably from 1995 to 2007 –Efforts have been hampered by emergence of MDR-TB

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Indicator 7.1: Proportion of land covered by forest –Some progress registered –Deforestation continues, though at a lower pace Indicator 7.2: CO2 total per capita and per US$1 GDP –General trend towards reduced CO 2 emission per capita in almost all countries –Cost of dealing with the adverse consequences of climate change is likely to hamper progress on the MDGs Indicator 7.3: Consumption of ozone-depleting substances –Majority of African countries party to the Montreal Protocol have achieved 97% reduction in the consumption of toxic substances that deplete the ozone layer Indicator 7.4: Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological limits –Climate change could alter marine and fresh water ecosystems, exacerbating the vulnerability of environmental resources in Africa Indicator 7.5: Proportion of water resources used –Agriculture consumes 70% of withdrawn water –A number of African countries are facing serious water stress –Climate change is affecting rainfall cycles, further exacerbating the situation

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability, Cont’d Indicator 7.6: Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas protected –Under the current trends, Africa seems to be on track in reducing biodiversity loss –Many countries registered a positive change in the proportion of protected areas during the period 1990 to 2007 Indicator 7.8: Proportion of people using an improved drinking water source –Safe water access continues to be a challenge –General progress noted for rural households, as access improved from 54% to 65% between Indicator 7.9: Proportion of people using an improved sanitation facility –Open defecation still common, particularly in rural areas Indicator 7.10: Proportion of urban population living in slums –Population with shelter deprivation decreased from 71% to 62 % between 1990 and 2005 in SSA, and from 36% to 15% in North Africa –Africa remains the region with highest prevalence of slums, as slums and urban areas rapidly expand, leading to a worsening of living standards of impoverished population

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Current rate of progress not enough to achieve this goal, though some progress has been made in promoting international cooperation Debt sustainability remains a major challenge for Africa LDCs & SIDS facing special challenges and requiring an increase in ODA as a proportion of their GNI Progress has been mixed, some countries have seen increases in ODA while others have registered reductions Need for advocacy to ensure delivery of resources pledged by the international community

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development, Cont’d Indicator 8.13: Proportion of population with access to affordable essential drugs on a sustainable basis –Need for global action to improve access to affordable medicines Indicator 8.14: Telephone lines per 100 population –Very slow growth rate Indicator 8.15: Cellular subscribers per 100 population –High growth rate, progress mixed within and across countries/regions Indicator 8.16: Internet users per 100 population –Growth rate steadily increasing since 2000, progress mixed within and across countries/regions

Way Forward & Conclusion The generalized statement that Africa will not reach the MDGs by 2015 does not do justice to difference across African countries and across goals Notable advances have been made in achieving primary school enrolment, immunization rates, stemming the spread of HIV/AIDS and TB, and gender parity including the representation of women in decision making Progress in the key areas of poverty reduction, employment and most health-related goals remain disappointing

Way Forward & Conclusion African countries face a number of challenges: Countries must deal with rising inequality and inequities in access to social services as inequities explain in large measure the region’s slow progress in attaining the health MDGs. Development partners have to live up to their commitments Countries will have to scale up innovations and interventions that have been proved to work Countries will have to prioritize the MDGs in view of time and resource constraints Need to begin to look beyond 2015

Thank You!