NZ’s role in contributing to international efforts to deal with Climate Change Comments at the MFAT exchange of views, Wellington, August 16, 2007 Professor Peter Barrett Victoria University of Wellington Tel 04) The IPCC has been reporting with increasing confidence for almost 2 decades that the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly burning fossil fuels and land use changes, are changing climate, and scientific reports from the last 18 months suggest some effects like melting ice and rising sea level are proceeding more rapidly than previously predicted IPCC temperature projections to 2100 (see graph) indicate even if substantial progress is made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions average global temperature is still likely to rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, widely regarded as “dangerous” for the warmer and more energetic climate it will bring. Indeed greenhouse gas levels are already approaching the 450 ppm CO 2equivalent that will lead to this temperature once the full effects are realised. NZ’s is better placed to cope with global warming on account of its small size and location (mid-latitude, surrounded by ocean - see satellite image). We also have more energy alternatives and technology options than most, making it easier for us to reduce our carbon footprint to near sustainable levels (ie from the present 3-4 tonnes of carbon per person per year to less than 1 tonne per person per year) These circumstances provide NZ with an opportunity and a moral responsibility to show the rest of the world how a “carbon-neutral” society can be developed. This will require an unprecedented degree of collaboration throughout NZ society for developing policy options that can be effective in achieving the dramatic reductions in greenhouse gas levels per person that will be essential world wide to provide a lasting solution to the climate change problem.

From IPCC 2007 Fig SPM-7 greenhouse gas levels for year 2000 held constant “pre-industrial” Earth Population 6 billion Earth population 3 billion IPCC 1990 IPCC 2007 NASA’s Hansen says we have 10 years left +2°C ~450 ppm CO 2 e “dangerous” GHG level (Exeter meeting 2005)

Science clear that climate now changing faster than predicted Triple problem of “built in” CC, economic/social response time and peak oil NZ better placed for survival than almost any other nation Moral responsibility to lead by example More collaboration needed