Donald JR MacRae Lloyds TSB Scotland 12th April 2005 Scotland’s Business Growth Enterprise and Culture Committee The Scottish Parliament

Scotland - The Gap? Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002 No. of Comparators * Not in education, employment or training.

GDP per Capita PPPs Source: OECD (2004), DTI: Regional Competitiveness & State of the Regions (May 2004). Note: Scotland estimated at 94.6% of UK. high income high middle income group low middle income group group over 120

International Comparisons of GDP Growth Source: Goudie (2003).

Key Drivers of Productivity Improvement Human capital Physical capital Innovation Enterprise Competitiveness

Population Trends: Scotland and UK, Source: Scottish Executive (2000). UK Scotland Index:1995 = 100

Scotland’s Birthrate in a European Context Total Fertility Rate* 2001 Source: Turner, A., Reflections on the Allander Series. (2004). * Children per woman

Assumed Annual Long Term Migration by Age Scotland onwards 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 -2,000 -3,000 Persons & over Years of Age Source: Experian Business Strategies, March 2005.

GDP per Hour Worked 2001 Source: Scottish Economic Report November 2004.

% working age population in employment OECD % year olds NEET* OECD % year olds with at least NVQ 3 UK % young people with adequate skills (PISA) OECD % working age population in education, trainingUK or employment Scotland - Skills and Learning Indicator Quartile Position Comparators Source: Measuring Smart Successful Scotland (2004). Training and Employment Unit, University of Glasgow. * Not in education, employment or training.

Business R & D Expenditure Source: Crafts and O’Mahony (2001) and DTI (2001). *

Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Scotland New Business Activity Scotland United Kingdom Ireland

Aggregate Government Expenditure ScotlandUK Source: Goudie (2002). Scottish Executive, GERS % share in GDP, to

Aggregate Government Expenditure % Share GDP 2003 Source: Verhulst et al. (2005). *GERS ; **Author’s calculation

Scotland - The Gap? Source: Measuring Scotland’s Progress Towards Smart, Successful Scotland Scotland’s Quartile Position in OECD Countries 2002 No. of Comparators * Not in education, employment or training.