1. Session II. Long-Term Aspects
Murray Sherwin, Chair, New Zealand Productivity Commission
8th Annual NBP Conference on the Future of the European Economy (CoFEE), 26 October 2018

2. Figure 1: Budget 2018 fiscal outlook
Setting the scene
Figure 1: Budget 2018 fiscal outlook

3. Per capita incomes stuck below the top half of the OECD
Figure 2: GDP per capita relative to the top half of the OECD
Source: OECD.Stat

4. Key themes
Economic geography
Competition intensity
Innovation diffusion
Capital v labour intensity
Industry structure
Public sector productivity
Coping with climate change

5. Capital formation below the average of top OECD countries
Figure 5: Gross fixed non-residential capital formation (per person in labour force)
Source: OECD.Stat

6. Resources getting stuck in low productivity firms
Figure 6: Share of resources by productivity quartile
Source: Meehan (2018)

7. Further information murray.sherwin@productivity.govt.nz

8. Stalling capital deepening in the measured sector
Table 1: Measured sector productivity growth over growth cycles
Growth Cycle
Labour productivity
Multifactor productivity
Contribution of capital deepening
2.9
1.9
1.0
1.3
0.5
0.8
1.1
0.6
1.5
0.7
Source: Statistics New Zealand

9. Low productivity levels and growth
Figure 3: Average growth in labour productivity and GDP per hour worked
Source: OECD.Stat

10. Recent population growth driven by migration
Figure 4: Contributions to population growth
Source: Statistics New Zealand

11. Disconnected and stuck
Figure 7: Drivers of a low productivity equilibrium
Source: Conway (2018)